Global| Nov 02 2009Europe's MFG PMIs Continue To Rise. EMU PMI Rises Over 50 For First Time In 18 Months To Vee Or Not To Vee…Is That [...]
Summary
Europe’s MFG sector is up over the neutral reading of 50 for the first time in 17 months. The Markit/NTC gauges of the EMU economy and for individual nations is a stronger reading than in the EU Commission framework. Five of the nine [...]
Europe’s MFG sector is up over the neutral reading of 50 for the first time in 17 months. The Markit/NTC gauges of the EMU economy and for individual nations is a stronger reading than in the EU Commission framework.
Five of the nine economies with individual readings in the table are above the breakeven value of ‘50’ in October. Among these nine nations only Greece saw its reading slip in October.
The rebound now looks like that much talked above Vee-shape. Despite rampant pessimism Europe is putting on a good recovery in Manufacturing. The EMU countries as well as the UK are looking quite strong.
The EMU percentile standings for these gauges are in the low 6oth percentile up to the 69th percentile for France and Austria; the 65th for Germany. This is evidence of a true recovery and is one of the more optimistic reports out of Europe for some time.
| NTC/Markit MFG Indices | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-09 | Sep-09 | Aug-09 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Percentile | |
| Euro-13 | 50.73 | 49.29 | 48.24 | 49.42 | 46.30 | 40.50 | 63.8% |
| Germany | 51.04 | 49.65 | 49.17 | 49.95 | 45.99 | 39.68 | 65.9% |
| France | 55.61 | 52.99 | 50.78 | 53.13 | 49.45 | 43.18 | 69.2% |
| Italy | 49.24 | 47.58 | 44.25 | 47.02 | 45.04 | 40.30 | 57.8% |
| Spain | 46.30 | 45.82 | 47.20 | 46.44 | 44.87 | 38.17 | 61.4% |
| Austria | 51.05 | 50.31 | 49.95 | 50.44 | 46.51 | 41.06 | 69.7% |
| Greece | 47.97 | 48.46 | 51.13 | 49.19 | 48.36 | 44.27 | 46.2% |
| Ireland | 48.01 | 46.57 | 44.01 | 46.20 | 44.01 | 40.20 | 63.9% |
| Netherlands | 50.52 | 50.02 | 50.51 | 50.35 | 47.22 | 42.24 | 61.7% |
| EU | |||||||
| UK | 53.68 | 49.85 | 50.47 | 51.33 | 49.57 | 43.58 | 87.8% |
| percentile is over range since March 2000 | |||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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