Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Sep 22 2010

Euro-Area Orders Unwind Last Months Gain

Summary

Growth wanes - Facade of strong orders begins to melt as July orders unwind June's gain. MFG goods sales fell in July to boot. Drops in sales and in orders are widespread in July. The drop in orders was more than markets has expected [...]


Growth wanes - Facade of strong orders begins to melt as July orders unwind June's gain. MFG goods sales fell in July to boot. Drops in sales and in orders are widespread in July. The drop in orders was more than markets has expected even with a good slug of data in hand from the larger countries.

Internal momentum is off the most - The chart shows that orders momentum is waning both inside and outside the Euro-Area. To be sure growth rates are still strong Yr/Yr but they are also falling off rapidly as the table's results demonstrate. Domestic orders are up by 7.3% Yr/Yr not the 13.2% they had been up just last month. Foreign-sourced orders are up by 23% Yr/Yr not 27%. Obviously the biggest drop off has been in the Euro-Area's own internal orders.

All early reporters show a slowdown in 12-mo growth - Among the large countries reporting, orders Italy shows the sharpest drop off in Yr/Yr orders from June to July and France shows the smallest loss on the period comparison. Germany's drop off is about par for the course.

Vultures circle, but go hungry - Questions about growth continue to haunt the Zone and the UK. The UK's CBI industrial group is beginning to wonder how much UK fiscal austerity will hit growth there. But Portugal one of the Euro-Area debt ridden economies has just been able to successfully raise funds in the market. The vultures may be circling Europe but they aren't feasting on anything yet.

Selected Euro-Area Industrial Orders Saar except m/m Mo/Mo Jul
10 Jun
10 Jul
10 Jun
10 Jul
10 Jun
10 Euro-Area Detail Jul
10 Jun
10 May
10 3Mo 3Mo 6Mo 6Mo 12Mo 12Mo MFG Orders -2.4 2.4% 4.2% 17.6% 28.7% 25.6% 27.6% 14.2% 22.7% MFG Sales -0.3% 0.1% 4.6% 19.0% 10.3% 13.5% 17.2% 11.5% 13.8% Consumer #N/A -1.0% 4.0% #N/A 1.9% #N/A 4.98% #N/A 4.9% Capital -2.2% 1.8% 5.4% 21.3% 11.2% 10.0% 17.9% 8.6% 13.3% Intermediate -1.1 -0.4% 2.6% 4.4% 13.9% 19.5% 11.7% 7.3% 13.2% Memo:MFG E-13 Domestic MFG orders -1.1 -0.4% 2.6% 4.4% 13.9% 19.5% 11.7% 7.3% 13.2% E-13 Foreign MFG orders -0.9 0.7% 5.4% 23.1% 33.3% 37.6% 40.1% 23.5% 27.5% Countries: Jul
10 Jun
10 May
10 3Mo 3Mo 6Mo 6Mo 12Mo 12Mo Germany (MFG): -2.6% 4.2% 0.2% 7.2% 38.3% 25.0% 47.4% 22.0% 28.6% France(Ind): 0.9% 3.4% 0.2% 19.3% 0.4% 13.3% -11.7% 11.6% 11.9% Italy (Ind): -3.0% -2.9% 3.3% -10.3% 21.6% 5.3% 5.8% 4.2% 13.8% Some Euro-Area reporters are timely and some lag. This table allows a sequential inspection of trends regardless of topicality
  • Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media.   Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.

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