Global| May 13 2009Euro Area IP Drops Again All Sectors Still Weak
Summary
Euro Area manufacturing output fell by 2.1% in March. The 21.2% drop Yr/Yr exceeds the 20.2% drop posted in February. The sequential growth rate rates seem to have stabilized at a very torrid pace of decline just under 30% at an [...]
Euro Area manufacturing output fell by 2.1% in March. The
21.2% drop Yr/Yr exceeds the 20.2% drop posted in February. The
sequential growth rate rates seem to have stabilized at a very torrid
pace of decline just under 30% at an annual rate. The capital goods
sector shows some slowdown in its decline in the Year/Year numbers but
the 3-mo growth rates for capital goods continue to deteriorate beyond
their readings for the six month growth rate.
Germany, Italy and Spain have the most rapid declines in IP
growth over the past three months. Germany and Italy are also the two
worst over the last 12-months. Output declines in the UK have slowed
markedly in the last few months; they post an annual rate of decline of
only -12.9% over three months.
For the quarter, massive declines in output are still being
registered. In Germany output is declining in the quarter at a 45%
annual rate. In France the decline is at a 25% annual rate. In Italy it
falls at a 34% annual rate. UK IP is falling at a 20% annual rate in
the quarter despite its recent greater stability. The upcoming EU
member country GDP growth rates for Q1 should be extremely weak
| Euro Area MFG IP | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Mo/Mo | Mar 09 |
Feb 09 |
Mar 09 |
Feb 09 |
Mar 09 |
Feb 09 |
|||
| Euro Area Detail | Mar 09 |
Feb 09 |
Jan 09 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q-1 |
| MFG | -2.1% | -2.4% | -3.6% | -28.1% | -31.9% | -29.0% | -29.5% | -21.2% | -20.2% | -31.2% |
| Consumer | -1.3% | -1.7% | -1.0% | -14.9% | -12.0% | -11.1% | -10.4% | -9.0% | -8.2% | -12.0% |
| Consumer Durables | -2.5% | -3.6% | -2.4% | -29.4% | -29.9% | -28.9% | -29.1% | -22.2% | -21.3% | -- |
| Consumer Non-durables | -1.0% | -1.5% | -0.9% | -12.6% | -9.8% | -8.1% | -7.5% | -6.8% | -6.4% | -- |
| Intermediate | -3.1% | -2.5% | -1.6% | -25.3% | -35.5% | -35.2% | -35.8% | -26.0% | -24.3% | -34.0% |
| Capital | -0.5% | -2.9% | -7.2% | -35.6% | -41.6% | -33.1% | -36.2% | -22.8% | -24.2% | -40.0% |
| Main Euro Area Countries and UK IP in MFG | ||||||||||
| Mo/Mo | Mar09 | Feb09 | Mar09 | Feb09 | Mar09 | Feb09 | ||||
| MFG Only | Mar 09 |
Feb 09 |
Jan 09 |
3Mo | 3Mo | 6mo | 6mo | 12mo | 12mo | Q-1- Date |
| Germany: | -0.2% | -3.5% | -7.7% | -37.8% | -48.4% | -37.1% | -40.0% | -22.9% | -22.9% | -45.7% |
| France: IP ex Construction | -1.4% | -0.9% | -3.9% | -22.2% | -23.0% | -25.1% | -25.5% | -16.1% | -15.9% | -24.7% |
| Italy | -4.7% | -5.0% | -1.3% | -36.4% | -35.7% | -34.8% | -33.7% | -25.6% | -21.6% | -34.1% |
| Spain | -5.1% | 1.1% | -8.2% | -39.7% | -21.4% | -36.5% | -25.5% | -13.9% | -24.5% | -37.1% |
| UK: EU member | 0.0% | -0.3% | -3.1% | -12.9% | -19.3% | -18.0% | -19.7% | -12.9% | -13.4% | -20.3% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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