Global| Mar 31 2010EU: Growth So Slow, You’d Hardly Know…
Summary
It is not so unusual for the rate of unemployment to rise early in an expansion, but this expansion has been in train for a while and the rise in the rate is a bit chilling. Taking some of the sting out of this event may be the German [...]
It is not so unusual for the rate of unemployment to rise early in an expansion, but this expansion has been in train for a while and the rise in the rate is a bit chilling. Taking some of the sting out of this event may be the German rate which has already been announced for March since that rate is moving lower. Still the February result for the Zone is just the sort of backsliding the EU Commission and the ECB do not want to see. Spain remains major problem.
What’s worse is that this figure is reports as the EMU inflation rate has taken a turn for the worse and is up by 1.5% Yr/Yr. Granted energy is the driving force there but given the ECB’s hyper-sensitivity to inflation and its focus on the headline rate, that inflation report was not good news.
Around the world a number of reports today showed some backsliding ranging from a reported slip in consumer confidence in the UK, poor wage data featuring sharply cut mid-year bonus payments in Japan and weak housing and retail reports from Australia. This is not enough to put at question the ongoing global recovery, but it is a bit deflating at a time that we are looking at growth ever so closely and trying to get a sustainable recovery going. Rising inflation, even if from oil prices, makes the situation even worse since everyone uses energy and faces this challenge.
| Unemployment Rate And Changes | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | Level | Simple Changes | ||||
| Feb-10 | Jan-10 | Dec-09 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | |
| EU-Urate | 9.6 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| EMU-Urate | 10.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Unemployment rate and changes | M/M% | Changes (ar) | ||||
| EU-U 000s | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 15.8% |
| EMU-U 000s | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 13.3% |
| U-Rates | Level | Simple Changes | ||||
| Germany | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| France | 10.1 | 10 | 10 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Spain | 19 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.3 |
| USA | 9.7 | 9.7 | 10 | -0.3 | 0 | 1.5 |
| Japan | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.2 | -0.4 | -0.5 | 0.5 |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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