Global| Feb 18 2003Empire State Factory Survey Down in February
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey reported that the index of general business conditions fell sharply this month. Expectations had been for just a sight decline versus January. Despite the decline the general business conditions [...]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey reported that the index of general business conditions fell sharply this month. Expectations had been for just a sight decline versus January.
Despite the decline the general business conditions index remained positive, suggesting continued growth in area economic activity as well as positive growth in industrial production nationally.
Diffusion indexes for most subgroups fell. The employment index nevertheless was positive for just the second month since July. Shipments and orders fell. The readings remained fairly positive. The index of prices paid rose sharply to a record for the index as the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices surged.
The survey includes measures of business expectations, six months ahead. The diffusion index for general business conditions fell for the fifth consecutive month to the lowest level since September 2001. Expectations for prices paid in six months surged to the highest level since August.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question, not the components.
For the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey report, click here.
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General business conditions (diffusion index) | 1.13 | 20.72 | 18.06 | 7.07 | -13.81 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
