Global| Sep 26 2016Dallas Fed Factory Sector Activity Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its general activity index of factory sector activity in Texas remained negative during September. However, the figure at -3.7 was improved versus the low of -34.6 in January. The [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its general activity index of factory sector activity in Texas remained negative during September. However, the figure at -3.7 was improved versus the low of -34.6 in January. The reading has been negative since 2015. The production index jumped to 16.7, the highest level since September 2014. Hiring activity also improved. The employment index of 2.3 was the first positive reading since December. Pricing power also strengthened, and the index of -0.9 for finished goods was at its highest level since December 2014. The low for the series was reached in December. Working the other way, growth in new orders deteriorated. The reading of -5.8 was down from the prior month's positive figure, but remained up from the expansion low in June.
Prospects for business activity were brighter. The reading for six months from now rose to 9.3, and has been positive since February. Offsetting this, however, was a decline in the production reading to 30.5. This reversed its sharp August rise. Optimism about the outlook for new orders also deteriorated sharply, and reversed the improvement of the prior two months. Caution also showed up in employment prospects where the six-month ahead figure of 14.5 was at the lowest level since June. Wages & benefits are expected to improve less than during all of last year. Expectations for the length of the workweek strengthened.
The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The data can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Dallas Federal Reserve Texas Manufacturing Survey (SA, Percent Balance) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep '15 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Activity Versus One Month Ago | -3.7 | -6.2 | -1.3 | -10.3 | -12.5 | 8.3 | 2.2 |
| Production | 16.7 | 4.5 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -1.0 | 14.5 | 9.8 |
| Growth Rate of New Orders | -5.8 | 2.1 | -9.7 | -3.0 | -11.8 | 4.7 | 0.1 |
| Number of Employees | 2.3 | -5.0 | -2.6 | -8.1 | -0.4 | 11.5 | 5.7 |
| Prices Received for Finished Goods | -0.9 | -1.3 | -5.7 | -10.3 | -8.5 | 8.3 | 2.9 |
| Business Activity in Six Months | 9.3 | 7.0 | 18.4 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 17.4 | 11.0 |
| Production | 30.5 | 32.8 | 45.2 | 24.6 | 31.1 | 42.7 | 37.1 |
| Future New Orders Growth Rate | 19.1 | 27.2 | 34.7 | 15.4 | 20.7 | 31.5 | 25.1 |
| Number of Employees | 14.5 | 21.7 | 18.8 | 4.6 | 14.6 | 28.6 | 23.1 |
| Wages & Benefits | 31.2 | 38.1 | 30.0 | 41.8 | 33.2 | 43.1 | 38.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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