Global| Apr 14 2005Consumer Prices in Sweden, Finland and Poland Still Restrained in the Face of Rising Energy
Summary
A couple of weeks ago, we noted here that higher energy prices had failed to ignite new inflation in Italy. The same is true for some other countries, whose CPI data were reported today for March. In Poland, the seasonally adjusted [...]
A couple of weeks ago, we noted here that higher energy prices had failed to ignite new inflation in Italy. The same is true for some other countries, whose CPI data were reported today for March. In Poland, the seasonally adjusted CPI was absolutely flat for a second month, and the year/year increase eased to 3.4% from 3.6% in February. In Finland, the year/year pace did go up in March to 1.0%, from 0.2% in both January and February, but this remains a relatively low number. Finnish inflation has averaged 1.3% over the last five years.
In Sweden, there is almost no inflation at all, nor any sign of a pickup. The March figure was a mere 0.1% above March 2004, with the prior two months averaging a little over 0.3%, about the same as in 2004 overall.
Thus, as in the situation in Italy, which we discussed before, other prices remain weak, offsetting the pressure from energy. Clothing prices and technology-driven communications costs are low in most countries. Even fuel components themselves have slowed from their strongest pace, as seen in the second graph.
We speak of the restrained inflation as beneficial for these economies, but that remains, of course, a relative statement. As prices are held back in the face of rising fuel costs, someone's profits or incomes are being squeezed, so the outlook is still clouded by high-priced energy.
| Yr/Yr % Changes Not Seasonally Adjusted |
Mar 2005 | Feb 2005 | Jan 2005 | December/December|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | ||||
| Poland | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Sweden | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Finland | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Italy | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| US | -- | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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