Global| Apr 20 2005Chinese GDP Growth Remains Strong in Q1
Summary
China's GDP gained 9.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, according to data reported this morning in Beijing. This followed a similar performance in Q4 2004, and compared with at least one analyst survey that showed a consensus [...]
China's GDP gained 9.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, according to data reported this morning in Beijing. This followed a similar performance in Q4 2004, and compared with at least one analyst survey that showed a consensus forecast slowing to 9.0%.
Of the three broad industry groups reported today, two indeed slowed. Growth in the "primary" sector, mainly agriculture, decreased to 4.6% from 5.5% during all of 2004. Even so, these and the previous three quarters remain notably stronger than any pace in the prior six years of these output data.
The services sectors, "tertiary" industries, also retreated somewhat in Q1, expanding 7.6% versus 8.6% during 2004. Both periods, however, have similar rates to those that have prevailed in previous recent years.
"Secondary" industries include mining, manufacturing and utilities. There growth picked up a bit in Q1, to 11.3% from the 10.9% pace in 2004.
Policymakers have hoped for more distinct slowing in growth, and have tightened credit to try to achieve that. So far, their success has obviously been limited. The result of today's GDP report is likely to be continued restraint, and several forecasters today pointed toward still more interest rate increases. The People's Bank of China key 1-year lending rate is presently 5.58%, last raised in October.
| 4-Qtr % Changes | Q1 2005 | Q4 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | 15.7 | 15.4 | 22.3 | 7.0 | 5.2 |
| Real GDP | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.9 | -- | -- |
| Cumulative YTD: Nominal GDP | 15.7 | 17.0 | 14.0 | 6.7 | 7.3 |
| Real GDP | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 7.5 |
| Primary Industries* | 4.6 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
| Secondary** | 11.3 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 9.8 | 8.4 |
| Tertiary*** | 7.6 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 8.4 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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