Global| Nov 30 2009Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Improves Steadily
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Association reported that its November Business Barometer improved to the highest level since August of last year. The index level of 56.1 was up sharply from the March low of 31.4. The survey covers a [...]
The
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Association reported that its November
Business Barometer improved to the highest level since August of last
year. The index level of 56.1 was up sharply from the March low of
31.4. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals
in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. During
the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the
Business Barometer and the three-month change in factory sector
industrial production.
The Association indicated that gains in the
index of vendor deliveries (slower speed), order backlogs and
employment contributed greatly to the November rise in the overall
index. The new orders index rose modestly m/m but was more than double
the year-ago level. The production component fell and reversed much of
the prior month's increase. Nevertheless, it remained nearly double the
January low.
The index of prices paid increased and made up an October decline. The latest level was more than double its May low. During the last ten years there has been a 78% correlation between the Prices Paid Index and the three-month change in the PPI for intermediate materials.
Why Are Banks Failing? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here .
| Chicago Purchasing Mgs. | November | October | September | November '08 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 56.1 | 54.2 | 46.1 | 33.6 | 46.8 | 54.4 | 56.8 |
| Production | 57.6 | 63.9 | 47.2 | 34.1 | 48.1 | 58.3 | 60.3 |
| New Orders | 62.8 | 61.4 | 46.3 | 29.2 | 46.7 | 57.7 | 59.9 |
| Employment | 41.9 | 38.3 | 38.8 | 33.4 | 41.4 | 51.5 | 51.6 |
| Prices Paid | 52.6 | 48.6 | 51.3 | 54.1 | 73.5 | 66.5 | 72.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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