Global| Apr 21 2008Chicago Fed Index Indicates Recession
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) for March, published by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, improved slightly to -0.78 from its low February reading of -1.28. Nevertheless, the recent level was near the lowest since early 2003 and [...]
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) for March, published by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, improved slightly to -0.78 from its low February reading of -1.28. Nevertheless, the recent level was near the lowest since early 2003 and was just above the levels reached during the 2001 recession.
A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth of roughly 3%. During the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP. An index level at or below -0.70 typically has indicated negative U.S. economic growth.
The complete CFNAI report is available here and the historical data are available in Haver's Surveys database.
Each of the four broad categories of indicators — employment, production, consumption and housing — continued to make negative contributions to the CFNAI during March.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production & income, the labor market, personal consumption & housing, manufacturing & trade sales, and inventories & orders.
Economic Trends and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.
Globalization and Inflation Dynamics: The Impact of Increased Competition from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here
| Chicago Fed | March | February | March '07 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -0.78 | -1.28 | 0.05 | -0.42 | -0.05 | 0.26 |
| 3-Month Average | -0.86 | -0.92 | -0.41 | -0.34 | -0.03 | 0.26 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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