Global| Feb 29 2016Chicago Business Barometer Reverses Earlier Improvement
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Managers indicated that its General Business Barometer retreated to 47.6 during February following a surge to 55.6 in January. The reading remained at the low end of the range during the last year. The ISM- [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Managers indicated that its General Business Barometer retreated to 47.6 during February following a surge to 55.6 in January. The reading remained at the low end of the range during the last year. The ISM-Adjusted index fell to 46.7 and gave back its January improvement. During the last ten years, there has been a 62% correlation between the index level and quarterly growth in real GDP.
Declines in the production and the new orders series were pronounced. Employment also fell sharply to the lowest level since November 2009. Fourteen percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher job levels while 24% reported declines. Order backlogs also fell, but supplier deliveries and inventories series rose slightly.
The prices paid index declined to the lowest level since July 2009. Eight percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices, but 24% reported them lower.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing managers in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb '15 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 46.7 | 52.4 | 46.8 | 49.8 | 51.6 | 59.3 | 54.2 |
| General Business Barometer | 47.6 | 55.6 | 42.9 | 46.8 | 50.3 | 60.7 | 56.0 |
| Production | 44.0 | 62.5 | 46.6 | 46.6 | 52.5 | 64.5 | 58.2 |
| New Orders | 51.7 | 58.8 | 38.6 | 43.9 | 50.4 | 63.8 | 59.1 |
| Order Backlogs | 45.3 | 47.2 | 29.4 | 41.5 | 44.4 | 54.2 | 48.8 |
| Inventories | 43.1 | 42.7 | 48.9 | 49.0 | 52.1 | 55.9 | 45.6 |
| Employment | 45.2 | 48.9 | 46.4 | 51.9 | 50.3 | 56.0 | 55.6 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 49.7 | 49.2 | 53.7 | 57.4 | 52.5 | 56.5 | 52.5 |
| Prices Paid | 41.1 | 43.7 | 45.6 | 48.6 | 46.8 | 61.0 | 59.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
