Global| Feb 07 2006Chain Store Sales Up, Gasoline Prices Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales surged 2.0% during the opening week of February and recovered all of the prior week's sharp 1.1% decline, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. As a result of the jump, sales [...]
Chain store sales surged 2.0% during the opening week of February and recovered all of the prior week's sharp 1.1% decline, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey.
As a result of the jump, sales began the month 0.9% above the January average which rose 1.0% from December.
The rise in sales may have been aided by a two cent decline in gasoline prices at the pump to $2.34 per gallon of regular unleaded. The decline reversed most of the prior week's rise. Despite the decline, retail gasoline prices began February three cents higher than the January average with rose thirteen cents versus December. 
In spot market trading, gasoline prices recently have been quite soft. The decline from $1.74 last Monday extended to yesterday when prices hit $1.56, the lowest level since late December. Weak demand for gasoline may have caused the price weakness as gasoline demand fell 10% from December. Seasonal declines in demand of this order have been common during January in the past. The theory is complicated, however, by the abnormally warm temperatures last month.
The leading indicator of chain store sales reversed all of the prior week's rise and fell 0.6%.The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 02/04/06 | 01/28/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 462.9 | 454.0 | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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