Global| Sep 06 2006Chain Store Sales Up Again, Gasoline Prices Down Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales rose another 0.3% last week after the 0.6% increase at the end of August. The gains were the first back to back weekly increases in a [...]
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales rose another 0.3% last week after the 0.6% increase at the end of August.
The gains were the first back to back weekly increases in a month and lifted sales in early September 0.6% above the August average which rose 0.4% from July. During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS slipped another 0.1% (-2.5% y/y) in the latest week.
The retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline dropped a sharp twelve cents to an average $2.73 (-11.1% y/y), the lowest level since early April. In spot market trading yesterday, regular unleaded gasoline prices fell again to $1.67, down twelve cents from last week's average.
Oil prices also fell with the spot price of WTI crude down to $68.61 per bbl. (+4.0% y/y). Natural gas prices similarly fell to $5.49/mmbtu (-52.6% y/y) in spot trading.
The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 09/02/06 | 08/26/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 473.2 | 471.7 | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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