Global| Apr 30 2002Chain Store Sales Disappointing
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales in the latest week retraced all of their surge the prior period, falling 1.7% according to BTM-UBSW. April sales, with only one partial week to go, are 1.0% below the March average. During the last ten years there [...]
Chain store sales in the latest week retraced all of their surge the prior period, falling 1.7% according to BTM-UBSW.
April sales, with only one partial week to go, are 1.0% below the March average.
During the last ten years there has been a 20% correlation between the monthly percent change in chain store sales and the change in consumer confidence.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 4/27/02 | 4/20/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 399.3 | 406.3 | 3.3% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
by Tom Moeller April 30, 2002
The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence fell slightly in April, about as expected. March's level was little revised
The 1.7% m/m decline in the Conference Board measure was in line with modest drop in the University of Michigan Consumer sentiment survey.
The decline in confidence reflected a slight drop in consumer expectations and a moderate drop in the reading regarding the present situation.
The Conference Board's survey is conducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 108.8 | 110.7 | -1.0% | 106.6 | 139.0 | 135.3 |
by Tom Moeller April 30, 2002
The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index of Business activity fell as expected in April, but remained at a level consistent with positive factory sector growth.
Indexes of new orders, inventories and production fell.
The prices paid index rose to the highest level since May of last year. The vendor delivery speed index rose slightly.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 54.7 | 55.7 | 39.2 | 41.4 | 51.8 | 56.5 |
| Prices Paid | 55.4 | 51.2 | 55.2 | 50.5 | 65.6 | 57.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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