Global| Jul 06 2009Auto Registrations Lead Recovery In Europe
Summary
Special programs to incentivize new car purchases are having success in spurring new passenger car registrations in Europe. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said Monday that the recession in Europe will extend [...]
Special programs to incentivize new car purchases are having
success in spurring new passenger car registrations in Europe. European
Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said Monday that the recession
in Europe will extend throughout 2009. Yet the auto sector is doing
much better now.
These key large European economies show momentum building from
12-months to six months to three-months. Although most of retails sales
is languishing, the special incentives have prompted auto sales to
revive. In Germany the strongest growth is over six months as the three
month growth rate has backed off. France exhibits the same sort of
pattern but with much less strength over six months and three months.
Sales in Spain over three-months are exploding despite the
ongoing crash in the housing market there. Sales in the UK have finally
showing some growth over three-months buts sales there are still lower
on six months and 12-months.
Auto sales alone will not be enough to turn around the sagging
European economy. Much of Europe depends on export sales reviving; that
will require a more balanced rebound and for recovery to spread to the
surrounding area in Eastern Europe as well. For now, sales inventive
plans seem to be working for autos and that will help to spread some
optimism and growth and should combine with other programs to help to
get growth back on track in 2010.
| E Area Car Registrations | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Mo
Trend From |
6-Mo
Trend From |
12-Mo
Trend From |
|||||||
| All Seasons
Adjusted |
Jun-09 | May-09 | Apr-09 | Jun-09 | May-09 | Jun-09 | May-09 | Jun-09 | May-09 |
| Germany: | 6.5% | -6.2% | 15.8% | 79.1% | 2.2% | 128.3% | 125.9% | 40.7% | 39.4% |
| France (&WDA) | -10.6% | 17.7% | -2.4% | 11.2% | 123.3% | 19.3% | 48.9% | 6.6% | 14.6% |
| Italy | 20.3% | -12.3% | 9.7% | 79.9% | 34.3% | 12.8% | 20.8% | 11.5% | -9.4% |
| Spain | 25.9% | -9.3% | 15.9% | 206.5% | -12.4% | 22.1% | -9.3% | -16.0% | -39.1% |
| UK | 9.6% | -6.6% | 10.2% | 62.5% | -20.2% | -9.8% | 17.5% | -16.7% | -25.5% |
| Base Month of Calculation | May-09 | Apr-09 | Mar-09 | Mar-09 | Feb-09 | Dec-08 | Nov-08 | Jun-08 | May-08 |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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