Viewpoints

Back-to-back strong monthly gains in retail sales in May and June and a powerful rebound in the equity markets in Q2 create the impression the recession is over. But the recessionary environment is only delayed, hidden by the record [...]

There was some convergence in unemployment across the nation in June, a month in which 42 states saw significant declines in their unemployment rates, while 5 saw increases. Only 10 states had unemployment rates above 10 percent, with [...]

The coronavirus has distorted everything and that is not going to stop. It is also hard to tell what kind of rebound to expect and once we get one to tell if it will last. This is because of the hokey-pokey policy of deferring to the [...]

Japan's tertiary sector slipped for the fourth month in a row in May as did mining and manufacturing. The three-month, six-month, 12-month sequential averages of the index levels are falling except for construction. Percentage changes [...]

In Q2, federal withheld income tax receipts declined a record 25% from the same period one year ago. That's twice the reported decline in Q2 household and payroll employment. The sharper plunge in tax receipts is puzzling because the [...]

All states (as well as DC) saw real GDP decline in the first quarter. The rate of decline was heavily influenced by how rapidly the state responded to the onset of the pandemic, as well as its specific industry mix. New York and [...]

Both the employment report and the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) survey of manufacturers for June show a strong "bounce" in jobs and new orders from very depressed levels. The financial markets view the data as another sign of [...]

China's manufacturing PMI gained ground at a snail's pace recovering the minor ground lost in May. China's manufacturing PMI has been above 50 every month this year except for February when the virus outbreak led to a shutdown in [...]