Viewpoints

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes in January show a wide range of variation in the extent of recovery. In the three months ending in January 48 states showed gains (the exceptions were Maine and New [...]

Incoming economic data in recent weeks have been encouraging. Forward looking indicators such as March's flash purchasing managers' surveys elicited across-the-board improvements in both manufacturing and services. Every major country [...]

State labor markets were, in general, little-changed in February. Only 14 states reported statistically significant changes in payrolls—11 up, 3 down. The two eye-popping moves were the increases in California--141,000 (.9 [...]

State personal incomes were wildly erratic in the 2020:Q4, with annual rates of growth ranging from South Dakota’s 16.7 percent to -16.1 percent in both Rhode Island and Pennsylvania. Two sharply divergent forces were at work: the [...]

The Federal Reserve members' updated projections at the March 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) paint an optimistic economic view and an unrealistic monetary policy picture. Policymakers now agree with private forecasters [...]

In many respects this year has started where last year left off. The daily news cycle is still dominated by stories about COVID-19 and about how governments are responding to its ebb and flow. A by now familiar pattern has established [...]

Once again, household portfolios are oversized and unbalanced, driven higher by a massive gain in a single asset (equities). Unbalanced portfolios have proven to be vulnerable to abrupt and sharp corrections. Will history repeat? The [...]

The understatement of housing inflation in the consumer price index has reached a new milestone. As reported, the gap between the actual change in house prices and owners' rent, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), [...]