Viewpoints

State personal incomes grew at spectacular rates in 2021:Q1, reflecting the disbursement of Federal transfers. Unsurprisingly, aggregate growth rates were strongest in poor states, where flat dollar transfers made a larger different: [...]

The Federal Reserve continues to claim that the current run-up in consumer price inflation is "transitory," pushed higher due to base effects and a temporary burst in pent-up demand as the economy re-opens. Yet, that view is in direct [...]

I know that I have said that "it is different this time" are the five most dangerous words in economic forecasting. But, this most recent recession and recovery are different from the preceding cycle. Qualitatively this current cycle [...]

Consumer price inflation is experiencing its most significant increases in decades. Yet, reported inflation does not capture the full scale and breadth of experienced inflation. I never thought the US would experience rampant [...]

The incoming economic data over the past few days have – on the whole - painted a bright picture of the world economy. May's purchasing managers surveys for the US and Europe, published last week, suggested a broadly based improvement [...]

In May, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported that lead time for production materials jumped to 85 days, up from 79 in April. The May reading is an entire work-day month (21 days) above the level from one year ago and the [...]

In Q1 2021, the US economy registered double-digit annualized growth in nominal GDP, a rare occurrence. Yet, an even more rare event is that corporate operating profits did not increase in the quarter when GDP growth increased double- [...]

Navigating the twists and turns of economic and financial market data has never been easy. But the interplay between economic outcomes and financial market outcomes is often the most perplexing. Who would have thought, for example, [...]