Viewpoints: 2021

As we head into the second half of 2021, here are a few exhibits that offer some colour on what we have learned about the global environment in the first half of this year. Vaccines are working The first lesson is that vaccines are [...]

Real GDP growth by state in Q1 was fairly uniform in the first quarter. 46 states are estimated to have had annual real growth rates between 4.3 and 7.9 percent. Four were stronger: Nevada, whose 10.9 percent was the leader, Utah, New [...]

State job growth picked up somewhat in May following the lackluster April numbers. BLS reports that 14 states saw statistically significant increases in payroll employment. The gains were somewhat concentrated, in that California saw [...]

State personal incomes grew at spectacular rates in 2021:Q1, reflecting the disbursement of Federal transfers. Unsurprisingly, aggregate growth rates were strongest in poor states, where flat dollar transfers made a larger different: [...]

The Federal Reserve continues to claim that the current run-up in consumer price inflation is "transitory," pushed higher due to base effects and a temporary burst in pent-up demand as the economy re-opens. Yet, that view is in direct [...]

I know that I have said that "it is different this time" are the five most dangerous words in economic forecasting. But, this most recent recession and recovery are different from the preceding cycle. Qualitatively this current cycle [...]

Consumer price inflation is experiencing its most significant increases in decades. Yet, reported inflation does not capture the full scale and breadth of experienced inflation. I never thought the US would experience rampant [...]

The incoming economic data over the past few days have – on the whole - painted a bright picture of the world economy. May's purchasing managers surveys for the US and Europe, published last week, suggested a broadly based improvement [...]