Viewpoints: October 2020

The 2020 economy will be remembered for the record plunge in Q2, and its record rebound in Q3. Yet, the most unusual or unique feature of the economy's performance, or downturn, is its mix. The 2020 downturn is the first economic [...]

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's state coincident indexes continued to be remarkably mixed in September, but still on an uptrend. 11 states saw an increase of 10 percent or more in the three months since June, led by [...]

On August 27, Fed Chairman Powell gave a speech entitled "New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review". The main "challenges" seemed to be a very low "neutral" or equilibrium interest rate structure and very low rates [...]

State labor market data results in September were somewhat less uniform than in prior months. 30 states had statistically significant drops in their unemployment rates from August to September, with New Jersey's 4.4 percentage-point [...]

The employment data and tax receipts don't compute. In September, the US Treasury reported that gross federal income tax receipts fell 19% versus year-ago levels. That represents the sharpest year-on-year decline since May, or when [...]

Lockdown, social distancing, an R rate north of one, contact tracing and herd immunity. Most folks who read these words a few months ago would have little idea about what was being discussed. Fast forward to today and those same words [...]

I'm from the late Senator Dirksen school of fiscal prudence, i.e., "[a] billion [dollars] here and a billion [dollars] there and pretty soon you're talking real money". The way I figure it, the taxpayers of America, perhaps more [...]

The spotlight on inflation has never been higher as the Federal Reserve made it the primary focus of monetary policy. That means price statistics must be relevant to the needs of policymakers as accurate price measures are necessary [...]