Viewpoints: May 2019

I keep hearing that the US economy is booming. After all, in the first quarter of this year, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1% vs. Q4:2018 and 3.2% vs. Q1:2018. Given that our labor force has grown at only 0.8% compounded [...]

Policymakers are conducting a review of its monetary policy framework, with the 2% inflation target under scrutiny. I have identified seven sins (flaws or misleading claims) about the Fed's price targeting framework that they might [...]

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity again show that growth is less intensely centered in the West. Over the 12 months ending in March, Nevada is once again the leader, with a striking 5.4% [...]

State payrolls were, like the national figure, generally strong in April. Ten states had statistically significant gains, led in absolute numbers by California (46,000) and in percentage terms by Rhode Island (.8%) . A handful of [...]

The Trump Administration has argued that China's unfair trade practices, which include tariffs, non-tariff barriers, export and financial subsidies, limit market access for imported goods, and investment restrictions are largely [...]

The "muzzle" on reported inflation has policymakers and analysts perplexed. Numerous economic explanations and theories have been offered, and policymakers are considering making changes to their operating price-targeting framework. [...]

In the four quarters ended Q1:2019, the chain-price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 1.4%, down from 1.9% in the four quarters ended Q4:2018. This was the slowest increase since 1.0% in the four quarters ended [...]