Viewpoints: 2020

In April, federal withheld income tax collections posted a record drop from year-ago levels. The scale of the decline indicates that the reported figures on job loss and unemployment are understating the collapse in labor markets. How [...]

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) composite index for manufacturing fell 7.6 points to 41.5 in April, the lowest level since the Great Financial Recession. As bad as the headline numbers appear at first glance the "internals" [...]

Given the sudden dive in economic activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the April 2020 employment report will be both historic and eye-popping. The unemployment rate is likely to rise to its highest level since the Great Depression, [...]

The great divide between finance and the economy rolls on. In the past 6 weeks, jobless claims have increased by 30 million, while the S&P 500 index has increased by more than 30%. The last decade saw the greatest divide ever between [...]

Even though the media has put a spotlight on the rising number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States, that is the wrong statistic to look at when trying to assess the risk of spread. Rather than the number of confirmed [...]

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank has issued estimates of state coincident indexes for March, and the results are truly ugly. The Bank's release shows a map illustrating three-month changes, and it is largely a frightening field [...]

The strong rebound in equity prices since mid-March suggests investors are banking on a fast rebound in the economy once government eases the restrictions on work-life, travel and social and recreational gatherings. Reopening regions [...]

The March state data provide first firm data on the regional impact of the pandemic. 31 states saw statistically significant drops in their job counts; Tennessee—a state that was quite late to impost shut-downs—was the only state to [...]