As soft as economic growth was in Q1, this quarter looks no better. The Chicago Fed reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) remained negative at -0.37 in May following a little-revised -0.56 in April. The three-month moving [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Jun 23 2011Chicago Fed Index Remains Negative
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 23 2011
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Reverse Earlier Decline
Initial claims for jobless insurance increased to 429,000 during the June 18th week from 420,000 during the week prior, initially reported as 414,000. The latest compared to Consensus expectations for 415,000 claims. The four-week [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 22 2011
FOMC Holds Interest Rates Unchanged; Outlook Deteriorates
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee today left the Federal funds rate in a "range from 0 to 1/4 percent." The Fed funds rate has remained unchanged since late-2008 at its lowest level ever. The discount rate also was left [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 22 2011
U.S. Mass Layoffs Pick Up Somewhat
In a reversal of the recent trend, mass layoffs in the U.S. rose during May and April. The Labor Department reported this morning that layoffs last month of 50 or more persons from a single firm rose 2.2% in May from April after that [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Overall mortgage applications fell 5.9% last week. However, since the decline followed a 13.0% increase during the week prior, applications for the month so far have risen 5.3% from May. Applications to refinance a mortgage led that [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 21 2011
U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall Further
The National Association of Realtors reported that forward momentum in the housing market has disappeared. Sales of existing homes during May fell 3.8% to 4.810M from 5.000M in April, revised from 5.050M. The decline followed a 1.8% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 21 2011
U.S. Chain Store Sales Weaken
Chain store sales fell 0.7% last week following a like decline the week earlier. That left sales so far this month down 1.0% from the May average. During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation between the y/y change in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 21 2011
U.S. Gasoline Prices Prices Drift Lower W/W But Remain Up One-Third Y/Y
Last week, the pump price for regular gasoline fell six cents to $3.65 per gallon. Since last month's peak, prices have fallen 31 cents but remain up one-third versus last year. Pump prices usually start rising this time of year with [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 17 2011
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rise is Strong
The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Indicators index rose 0.8% last month following a 0.4% April decline, initially reported as -0.3%. Consensus expectations were for a 0.2% rise in May. Despite the latest [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 17 2011
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deteriorates As Imports Rise
Reported yesterday, the U.S. current account deficit rose in Q1 to $119.3B from a revised $112.2B in Q1 as the gain in imports beat exports. Consensus expectations were for $128.0B. The ratio to GDP was 3.2%, the same as for all of [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 16 2011
Philadelphia Fed Business Activity Index Turns Negative
Like yesterday's Empire State Index, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's index of regional factory sector activity turned negative for June. It dropped to -7.7 from an unrevised 3.9 in May. It was the first negative reading since [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 16 2011
U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Fall Slightly
They fell, but not by much. Initial claims for jobless insurance declined 3.7% during the June 11th week to 414,000 from 430,000 during the week prior, initially reported as 427,000. The latest decline was to the same level as four [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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