Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Apr 02 2015

  U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Decline Further

  Initial unemployment insurance claims in the week ended March 28 declined to 268,000 (-18.5% y/y) from 288,000 during the prior week, revised from 282,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 285,500, the lowest [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 02 2015

  U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply to Five-Year Low

  The U.S. foreign trade deficit in goods and services declined to $35.4 billion during February from $42.7 billion in January, revised from $41.8 billion. A deficit of $41.8 billion was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 01 2015

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Recover After Three Months of Decline

  Consumers renewed their car-buying interest last month. Sales of light vehicles increased 5.6% (4.0% y/y) during March to 17.15 million units (AR) versus 16.23 million in February. The latest level was the highest since November. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 01 2015

  U.S. Construction Spending Weakens

  The value of construction put-in-place slipped 0.1% during February following a 1.7% drop in January, revised from -1.1%. No change had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Private construction activity gained 0.2% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 01 2015

  U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Is Depressed

  Factory sector activity remains without forward momentum. The March Composite Index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) declined to 51.5 following its February drop to an unrevised 52.9. It was the lowest level since May [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 01 2015

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Increase as Interest Rates Remain Low

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their total Mortgage Market Volume Index gained 4.6% last week (28.1% y/y) and remained at the highest level since early-February. Purchase applications led the way up with a 5.7% w/w [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 01 2015

  U.S. ADP: Job Growth Continues to Moderate

  The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report reported that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 189,000 during March following a 214,000 improvement in February, revised from 212,000. The latest gain was the weakest since January [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 31 2015

  Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Stabilizes

  Chicago purchasing managers reported that their March Business Barometer Index moved up to 46.3 this month following a sharp decline to an unrevised 45.8 in February. The reading roughly equaled expectations for 51.4 in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 31 2015

  U.S. Consumer Confidence Recovers

  The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index improved to 101.3 in March (20.7% y/y) and made up half of last month's decline to 98.8, revised from 96.4. The latest figure was stronger than expectations for 96.5 in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 31 2015

  U.S. Gasoline Prices Under Pressure Due to Excess Supply

  Gasoline prices dipped a penny last week to $2.45 cents per gallon and remained down by roughly one-third versus a year ago. Prices remained well below the $3.70 per gallon peak last June. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 30 2015

  Dallas Fed Factory Sector Activity Erodes Further

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its March Composite index of factory sector activity deteriorated to -17.4, the third consecutive negative monthly reading. The figure reflected weakness amongst most of the component [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 30 2015

  NABE Forecast Calls for Firm and Steady Economic Growth

  The just-released National Association for Business Economics forecast of 2.9% growth in U.S. real economic activity next year follows an expected 3.1% rise this year. Quarterly GDP growth is expected to hold fairly steady near 3.0%. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief