The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions remained negative during October for the third straight month and was nearly the weakest reading since the recession. The latest reading of -11.36 compared to an unrevised [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Oct 15 2015Empire State Factory Sector Activity Continues Lower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 15 2015
U.S. Initial Claims For Unemployment Insurance Touch 1973 Low
The job market continues to strengthen. Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 255,000 (-6.8% y/y) during the week ended October 10 from a little-revised 262,000 during the prior week. The figure matched the lowest [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 15 2015
U.S. CPI Dips; Core Prices Strengthen
The Consumer Price Index declined 0.2% during September (-0.0% y/y) and followed a 0.1% August dip. Pricing power elsewhere, however, strengthened. Prices excluding food & energy increased 0.2% (1.9% y/y) following two months of 0.1% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 14 2015
U.S. Petroleum Prices Rise; Natural Gas Falls Further
Gasoline prices at the pump inched up last week to $2.34 per gallon (-27.1% y/y) but remained below $2.84 in mid-June. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in pump prices. The seasonally adjusted [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 14 2015
U.S. Business Inventories Remain Unchanged
Total business inventories held steady during August (2.4% y/y) for a second month. Revisions to the July figures were minimal. These figures suggest inventories will have little effect on real GDP growth this quarter as in Q2. Retail [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 14 2015
U.S. Producer Price Decline Is Broad-Based
The overall Final Demand Producer Price Index fell 0.5% in September (-1.1% y/y) following an unrevised zero change in August. It was the first decline since April. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% decrease. Prices [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 14 2015
U.S. Retail Sales Are Little Changed Again
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during September notched 0.1% higher (-5.6% y/y) following no change in August, revised from 0.2%. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 13 2015
NFIB Survey Contains Mixed Business Activity and Weak Price Readings
The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index was little changed during September, nudging up to 96.1 from an unrevised 95.9 in August. The latest figure remained below the high of [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 12 2015
NABE Lowers Real Growth and Inflation Forecasts
The National Association for Business Economics forecast of 2.7% growth in U.S. real economic activity in 2016 was revised from 2.9% posted in June. Expected growth of 2.5% this year, however, was little-changed. Quarterly GDP growth [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 09 2015
U.S. Wholesale Inventory Accumulation Continues to Strengthen
Inventories at the wholesale level increased 0.9% during June (5.4% y/y) following a 0.6% May gain, revised from 0.8%. The rise was paced by a 2.0% jump (15.0% y/y) in automotive products inventories and a 1.5% rise in furniture (7.8% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 09 2015
U.S. Import Price Decline Is Limited By Rise In Petroleum Costs
Import prices eased 0.1% during September (-10.7% y/y) following a revised 1.6% drop during August, revised from -1.8%. A 0.5% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 1.1% increase (-46.1% y/y) in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 08 2015
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fall to Summer Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 263,000 (-11.6% y/y) during the week ended October 3rd from a little-revised 276,000 during the prior week. It was the lowest level since the middle of July. The four week moving [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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