Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Jan 12 2017

  U.S. Import Prices Rebound as Oil Prices Surge

  Import prices increased 0.4% (1.8% y/y) during December following a 0.2% November decline, revised from -0.3%. A 0.7% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all of last year, prices declined 3.4%, [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 11 2017

  FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Remain Strong

  The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 0.7% during the last four weeks and has risen 20.3% during the last twelve months. This follows strength [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 11 2017

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Increase Sharply

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Market Volume Index jumped 5.8% last week (-4.8% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick during the week prior. Purchase applications surged 6.1% (4.7% y/y) while refinancing [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 11 2017

  Wholesale Inventories Surge

  Inventories at the wholesale level jumped 1.0% (1.6% y/y) during November following a revised -0.1% dip, initially reported as -0.4%. The advance report indicated a 1.3% November increase. Inventories of durable goods increased 1.0% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 10 2017

  U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Costs Remain Little Changed

  Regular gasoline prices of $2.39 per gallon (19.6% y/y) last week edged up from $2.38 per gallon in the prior week. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in these pump prices. Weakness in gasoline [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 10 2017

  U.S. JOLTS: U.S. Labor Market Activity Improves Slightly

  The total job openings rate of 3.7% during November was improved from October's 3.6%, revised from 3.7%. It remained down from the record high of 3.9% in July. The private-sector job openings rate held steady, however, at 3.9%. It was [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 10 2017

  U.S. Small Business Optimism Increases Sharply

  The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index surged 7.5% during December (11.1% y/y) to 105.8. It was the strongest level of optimism since December 2004. During all of last year, the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 09 2017

  U.S. Consumer Borrowing Strengthens

  Consumer credit outstanding increased $24.5 billion during November (6.7% y/y) following a $16.2 billion October rise, revised from $16.0 billion. An $18.2 billion increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 09 2017

  U.S. Labor Market Conditions Index Turns Negative

  The Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) from the Federal Reserve Board includes 19 indicators of labor market activity, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment. These include jobs, workweeks, wages, [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 09 2017

  U.S. Factory Orders Reverse Course With Decline in Aircraft Bookings

  Manufacturing sector orders declined 2.4% during November (+1.2 % y/y) following October's 2.8% surge. Durable goods bookings declined 4.5% (-0.2% y/y), revised from the advance estimate of a 4.6% fall. Transportation orders declined [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 06 2017

  U.S. Payroll Increase Eases as Earnings Accelerate

  Nonfarm payroll employment increased 156,000 during December (1.4% y/y) following a 204,000 November increase and a 135,000 October rise. Revisions added 19,000 jobs to these two latter results combined. A 175,000 increase in December [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Jan 06 2017

  U.S. Payroll Increase Eases as Earnings Accelerate

  Nonfarm payroll employment increased 156,000 during December (1.4% y/y) following a 204,000 November increase and a 135,000 October rise. Revisions added 19,000 jobs to these two results combined. A 175,000 increase in December [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief