Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| May 05 2017

  U.S. Payroll & Earnings Growth Improve; Unemployment Rate Declines

  The job market firmed with the beginning of spring. Nonfarm payrolls rose 211,000 (1.4% y/y) during April. The rise followed a 79,000 March gain and a 232,000 February rise. These figures together were revised down by 6,000. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 04 2017

  U.S. Factory Orders Strengthen

  Manufacturing sector orders improved 0.2% during March following a 1.2% February gain, revised from 1.0%. Durable goods orders increased 0.9% (4.8% y/y), revised from the advance report of a 0.7% gain. Transportation sector orders [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 04 2017

  U.S. Productivity Declines; Unit Labor Costs Accelerate

  Growth in nonfarm output per hour during Q1'17 eased at a 0.6% annual rate (+1.1% y/y) following a 1.8% Q4 increase. No change in productivity had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Output grew 1.0% (2.4% y/y) and [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 04 2017

  U.S. Trade Deficit Is Little Changed as Exports & Imports Ease

  The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services of $43.7 billion during March compared to $43.8 billion in February, initially reported as $43.6 billion. Expectations had been for a $44.7 billion deficit in the Action Economics Forecast [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 03 2017

  FOMC Delays Interest Rate Action

  At today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the targeted federal-funds rate was left unchanged in a range of 0.75% to 1.00%. The targeted range has been raised three times since the low of 0.12% in place from late-2008 [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 03 2017

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Are Little-Changed

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Volume Index eased 0.1% last week (-16.9% y/y) in the week of April 28, after a 2.7% rise in the preceding week. Refinancing applications declined 4.7% and [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 03 2017

  U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index and Prices Recover

  The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rebounded to 57.5 during April, and recovered most of the March decline to an unrevised 55.2. The Action Economics Forecast Survey [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 03 2017

  U.S. ADP Private Payroll Gain Weakens

  The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 during April following a 255,000 March rise, revised from 263,000. A 185,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 02 2017

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Improve M/M, Weaken Y/Y

  Total sales of light vehicles increased 1.6% during April to 16.88 million units (SAAR), according to the Autodata Corporation. Despite the monthly rise, sales declined 3.0% y/y. During the first four months of 2017, sales averaged [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 02 2017

  U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Decline

  Regular gasoline prices fell to $2.41 per gallon last week (+7.6% y/y) compared to $2.45 during the prior week. Prices remained lower than the 2014 high of $3.71 per gallon. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 01 2017

  U.S. Construction Spending Slips

  The value of construction put-in-place eased 0.2% (+3.6% y/y) in March following 1.8% and 0.8% increases during February & January. These latter two figures were revised up from 0.8% and -0.4%, respectively. The latest figure compares [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 01 2017

  ISM Factory Sector Index & Prices Weaken

  The ISM composite index of factory sector activity during April fell to 54.8 from an unrevised 57.2 in March. It was the lowest level since December. A level of 56.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A decline [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief