The National Association for Business Economics expects 2.4% real U.S. economic growth in 2018, revised slightly from the earlier expectation of 2.5% growth. These follow expected growth of 2.2% this year, revised from 2.3%. Quarterly [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Jun 05 2017NABE 2018 Forecast Calls for Moderate Growth & Higher Inflation
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 05 2017
U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Weakens
The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) fell to 56.9 during May, and reversed all of its April increase. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 56.0. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 05 2017
U.S. Productivity Revised Upward and Cost Pressures Are Lowered
Nonfarm output per hour remained unchanged during Q1'17 (1.2% y/y) revised from the preliminary report of a 0.6% decline. A 0.1% dip had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Output grew an upwardly revised 1.7% (2.5% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 02 2017
U.S. Payroll Increase Disappoints; Jobless Rate Declines
The May employment report sent mixed signals about labor market conditions. Nonfarm payrolls rose 138,000 (1.5% y/y) last month. A 182,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise followed a 174,000 [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 02 2017
U.S. Payroll Increase Disappoints; Jobless Rate Declines
The May employment report sent mixed signals about labor market conditions. Nonfarm payrolls rose 138,000 (1.5% y/y) last month. A 182,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise followed a 174,000 [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 01 2017
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Ease
Light vehicle sales continue to soften. Total sales of light vehicles fell 1.3% during May to 16.66 million units (SAAR) from 16.88 million in April, according to the Autodata Corporation. Sales fell 3.0% y/y. During the first five [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 01 2017
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 248,000 (-7.5% y/y) during the week ended May 27 from 235,000 during the prior week, revised from 234,000. Expectations called for 238,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 01 2017
ISM Factory Sector Index Remains Steady
The ISM factory sector composite index, at 54.9, was little changed last month from April's reading of 54.8. The figure has been trending higher since Q4'15. A level of 54.8 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 01 2017
U.S. ADP Private Payrolls Strengthen
Business hiring remains firm. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 253,000 (2.1% y/y) during May following a 174,000 April rise, revised from 177,000. A 180,000 increase had been [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 31 2017
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Rebounds
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer for May increased to 59.4 following a decline to 58.3 in April. It was the highest index level since November 2014. The latest reading surpassed expectations for 57.5 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Readings above 50 indicate growth, while those below 50 show declines in activity levels.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released tomorrow. The Haver figure also rose to 59.4, similarly the highest level since November 2014. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between this adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.
Most of the component series improved this month. The production, order backlog, inventory and supplier delivery indexes each rose. The new orders series, however, retraced most of its April increase.
The employment index strengthened to the highest level since October 2014, and continued to register positive job growth. Twenty-eight percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher payroll levels while 16% reported lower employment. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
The prices paid barometer eased slightly to the lowest level in six months. An unchanged 35% of respondents paid higher prices while nine percent reported lower prices, compared to 11% one year earlier.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail, including the ISM-style index, in the SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) May Apr Mar May '16 2016 2015 2014<tr> <td class="firstcol" >General Business Barometer</td> <td >59.4</td> <td >58.3</td> <td >57.7</td> <td >50.3</td> <td >53.1</td> <td >50.3</td> <td >60.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="firstcol" >ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer</td> <td >59.4</td> <td >57.7</td> <td >57.2</td> <td >48.8</td> <td >52.0</td> <td >51.6</td> <td >59.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="firstcol" > Production</td> <td >63.2</td> <td >59.5</td> <td >61.7</td> <td >49.3</td> <td >54.7</td> <td >52.5</td> <td >64.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="firstcol" > New Orders</td> <td >61.4</td> <td >65.9</td> <td >60.4</td> <td >50.2</td> <td >55.7</td> <td >50.4</td> <td >63.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="firstcol" > Order Backlogs</td> <td >51.8</td> <td >43.0</td> <td >49.6</td> <td >47.5</td> <td >47.4</td> <td >44.4</td> <td >54.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="firstcol" > Inventories</td> <td >55.5</td> <td >53.3</td> <td >60.5</td> <td >38.1</td> <td >47.2</td> <td >52.1</td> <td >55.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="firstcol" > Employment</td> <td >57.1</td> <td >53.8</td> <td >49.1</td> <td >48.8</td> <td >49.4</td> <td >50.3</td> <td >56.0</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"> <td class="firstcol" > Supplier Deliveries</td> <td >59.6</td> <td >56.0</td> <td >54.4</td> <td >57.6</td> <td >52.8</td> <td >52.5</td> <td >56.5</td> </tr> <td class="firstcol" > Prices Paid</td> <td >57.3</td> <td >62.9</td> <td >64.7</td> <td >55.1</td> <td >53.1</td> <td >46.8</td> <td >61.0</td>by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 31 2017
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Decline
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Volume Index fell 3.4% (-15.5% y/y) in the week ended May 26, after a 4.4% rise during the prior week. Refinancing applications declined 5.6% (-31.4% y/y) [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 31 2017
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Rise Further
Regular gasoline prices nudged higher to $2.41 per gallon last week (2.9% y/y), the highest level in four weeks. Prices remained down five cents from late April's high and lower than the 2014 high of $3.71 per gallon. Haver Analytics [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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