Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Oct 12 2017

  U.S. Producer Prices Strengthen

  The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index using new methodology increased 0.4% during September (2.6% y/y) after a 0.2% August gain. It was the strongest increase since April. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 11 2017

  U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Holds Steady & Strong; Hiring Dips

  The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate in August remained at the record high of 4.0% for the third straight month. Figures prior to August were unrevised. The hiring rate slipped from its expansion [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 11 2017

  U.S. Energy Prices Weaken

  Retail gasoline prices declined last week to $2.50 per gallon (+10.2% y/y) and were lower than the $2.69 high early last month. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in gasoline pump prices. The [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 10 2017

  U.S. Small Business Optimism Wanes

  The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index declined to 103.0 during September following little change during August. In was the lowest level of confidence since November, but [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 06 2017

  U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Is Moderate

  Consumer credit outstanding grew $13.07 billion (5.5% y/y) during August following a $17.71 billion July increase, revised from $18.49 billion. A $15.5 billion August increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 06 2017

  U.S. Payrolls Battered by Hurricane Effects; Unemployment Rate Falls While Wages Strengthen

  The government's jobs numbers will be tough to read for a time as the economy deals with hurricane effects. Nonfarm payrolls declined 33,000 (+1.2% y/y) during September following a 169,000 August increase and a 138,000 July gain. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 06 2017

  U.S. Payrolls Battered by Hurricanes; Unemployment Falls While Wages Strengthen

  The government's jobs numbers will be tough to read for a time as the economy deals with hurricane effects. Nonfarm payrolls declined 33,000 (+1.2% y/y) during September following a 169,000 August increase and a 138,000 July gain. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 05 2017

  U.S. Factory Orders Surge With More Aircraft Orders

  Manufacturing sector orders increased 1.2% during August (5.8% y/y) following an unrevised 3.3% July decline. Durable goods orders rose 2.0% (5.4% y/y), revised from the advance report of a 1.7% gain. That followed a 6.8% decline. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 05 2017

  U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline

  Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 260,000 (+3.1% y/y) during the week ended September 30 from an unrevised 272,000 in the prior week. Expectations had been for 265,000 initial claims in the Action Economics Forecast [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 05 2017

  U.S. Trade Deficit Eases; Exports Improve as Imports Slip

  The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services fell to $42.4 billion during August from $43.6 billion during July which was little revised. A $42.8 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Total exports [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 04 2017

  U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Strengthens

  The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rose to 59.8 during September from an unrevised 55.3 in August. It was the highest level since August 2005. The Action Economics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 04 2017

  U.S. ADP Private Payroll Growth Weakened by Hurricanes

  The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 135,000 (2.0% y/y) during September following a 228,000 August rise, revised from 237,000. ADP indicated that last month's weakness was due [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief