Global| Dec 14 2017U.S. Retail Buying Strengthens Unexpectedly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The consumer exhibited noticeable buying power last month. Total retail sales and spending at restaurants jumped 0.8% (5.8% y/y) during November following a 0.5% October increase, revised from 0.2%. A 0.3% improvement had been [...]
The consumer exhibited noticeable buying power last month. Total retail sales and spending at restaurants jumped 0.8% (5.8% y/y) during November following a 0.5% October increase, revised from 0.2%. A 0.3% improvement had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales of motor vehicle & parts eased 0.2% (+6.3% y/y) following two months of strong increase, as unit vehicle sales fell 3.1%. Retail sales excluding autos jumped 1.0% (5.7% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. A 0.6% gain had been expected.
The rise in retail spending reflected a 2.8% increase (12.2% y/y) in gasoline service station sales, as pump prices strengthened. Retail sales excluding both motor vehicles and gasoline rose 0.8% (4.9% y/y) following a 0.3% October gain. The three-month annualized rate of increase in these sales surged to 8.5%, double last year's growth rate and the strongest rate of growth since early-2014.
Strength in sales was broad-based last month. Sales of nonstore retailers surged 2.5% (10.4% y/y), recovering after a 0.4% October dip. Building materials & garden equipment store sales gained 1.2% (10.7% y/y) following a 0.1% slip. Appliances & electronics store purchases strengthened 2.1% (6.4% y/y) after two monthly increases of roughly 1.3%. Furniture & home furnishing store sales grew 1.2% (8.2% y/y) following a 1.8% rise. Sporting goods store sales improved 0.9% (2.9% y/y) after two monthly increases of 1.4% or more. Clothing accessory store sales grew 0.7% (2.8% y/y) for the second straight month. Lagging behind were general merchandise store sales which remained unchanged (3.6% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
In the non-discretionary sales categories, sales of health and personal care stores rose 0.4% (3.1% y/y) following a 1.3% jump. Food & beverage stores realized 0.2% growth (3.2% y/y), the weakest of five monthly increases.
Restaurant sales and drinking place sales improved 0.7% (2.2% y/y) following a 0.4% rise.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 4.3 |
| Excluding Autos | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 3.8 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Retail Sales | 0.8 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 4.1 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -0.2 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 |
| Retail Less Autos | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 3.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | 2.8 | 0.3 | 6.0 | 12.2 | -5.7 | -17.6 | -2.0 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.7 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 6.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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