Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| May 04 2018

  U.S. Payroll Growth Remains Subdued; Wage Growth & Jobless Rate Ease

  The job market continued to lose its vibrancy during April. Nonfarm payrolls rose 164,000 (1.6% y/y) following a 135,000 March gain and a 324,0000 February increase. Together, these two figures were revised up by 30,000. A 190,000 [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 03 2018

  U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Declines

  The pace of business activity in the service sector continues to moderate. The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) fell to 56.8 during April from an unrevised 58.8 in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 03 2018

  U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply

  The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services declined to $48.96 billion during March from $57.74 billion in February, revised from $57.6 billion. It was the narrowest deficit in six months. A $52.3 billion deficit had been expected in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 02 2018

  FOMC Leaves Fed Funds Target Unchanged

  At today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the federal funds rate target was held constant in a range between 1.50% and 1.75%. The financial markets had expected today's action as indicated in the Action Economics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 02 2018

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Decline as Interest Rates Rise

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Volume Index fell 2.5% last week (-4.2% y/y), following a 0.2% slip during the prior week. Purchase loan applications declined 1.6% (+4.9% y/y), after [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 02 2018

  U.S. ADP Private Payroll Growth Slips

  The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 204,000 during April following a 228,000 March increase, revised from 241,000. A 201,000 rise had been expected in the Action Economics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 01 2018

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Falter

  Total sales of light vehicles declined 1.9% during April (+0.6% y/y) to 17.15 million units (SAAR), following a 2.4% March rise, according to the Autodata Corporation. The decline placed sales 7.6% below the 18.57 million unit high [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 01 2018

  ISM Factory Sector Index Falls Further; Prices Strengthen

  Activity in the factory sector moderated again last month. The ISM manufacturing sector composite index for April declined to 57.3, its lowest level in nine months. Despite the decline, the index remained near the highest point since [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 01 2018

  U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue Upward

  Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.85 per gallon last week (18.0% y/y) following the prior week's five cent increase to $2.80 per gallon. It was the highest price level since November 2014. Haver Analytics constructs factors [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 30 2018

  Texas Factory Sector Index Slips

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the April General Business Activity Index declined to 21.8, the lowest level since November and down from the February high of 38.4. Despite [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 30 2018

  U.S. Personal Spending Improves; Income Growth Is Stable

  Personal consumption expenditures in March bounced back an expected 0.4% (4.4% y/y) following stability in February. The gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Real personal spending also rose 0.4% (2.4% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Apr 27 2018

  U.S. GDP Growth Moderates; Domestic Demand Weakens

  U.S. economic growth continued to slow in Q1'18. In the advance estimate, gross domestic product grew at a 2.3% annual rate following Q4'17 growth of 2.9% and a 3.2% gain during Q3'17. A 2.1% increase had been expected in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief