Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Oct 16 2018

  U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices Ease; Natural Gas Prices Increase

  Gasoline prices slipped to an average $2.88 per gallon last week (+15.7% y/y), down two cents from the prior week. Prices have meandered sideways since May. Haver Analytics constructs factors to adjust for the marked seasonal [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 15 2018

  U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens to the Largest in Six Years

  The U.S. Treasury Department reported that during FY'18, the federal government ran a $779.0 billion budget versus a $665.8 billion deficit in FY'17. It was the largest deficit since 2012 and amounted to 3.9% of GDP, up from 3.5% in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 15 2018

  U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Eases

  Total business inventories increased 0.5% (4.2% y/y) during August following a 0.7% July rise, revised from 0.6%. Total business sales increased 0.5% (7.8% y/y), following a 0.2% gain. The inventory-to-sales ratio held steady at 1.34. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 15 2018

  U.S. Retail Sales Post Disappointing Increase

  Total retail sales improved 0.1% (4.7% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.1% August gain. A 0.6% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales eased [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 12 2018

  U.S. Home Affordability Improves M/M

  The National Association of Realtors reported that its Composite Index of Home Affordability declined 8.3% y/y during August to 141.2. The index was 34.4% below its peak in January 2013. Month-to-month, home affordability rose [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 12 2018

  U.S. Import Prices Rise With Higher Fuel Costs; Export Prices Steady

  Import prices increased 0.5% (3.5% y/y) during September following a 0.4% August decline, revised from -0.6%. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted. Strength [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 11 2018

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Decline As Interest Rates Rise

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index fell 1.7% (-14.4% y/y) in the week ending October 5 following no change during the prior week. Purchase loan applications declined 1.1% (+2.1% y/y), [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 11 2018

  U.S. CPI & Core CPI Edge Higher

  Consumer price inflation remained subdued last month due to broad-based weakness. The CPI rose 0.1% (2.3% y/y) during September following two straight 0.2% gains. The increase fell short of expectations for a 0.2% gain in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 10 2018

  U.S. Producer Prices Decline Unexpectedly

  The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index using new methodology eased 0.1% during August (+2.8% y/y) after holding steady in July. It was the first decline since February 2017. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 10 2018

  Wholesale Inventories and Sales Strengthen

  Wholesale inventories jumped 1.0% during August (5.1% y/y) following an unrevised 0.6% July increase. The August gain compared to 0.8% expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey. The rise compared to the 0.7% increase reported in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 10 2018

  U.S. Producer Prices Rebound; Core Prices Similarly Increase

  The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index using new methodology gained an expected 0.2% during September (2.6% y/y) following a 0.1% August dip. The PPI excluding food & energy also rose an expected 0.2% last month (2.5% y/y) [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 10 2018

  U.S. Energy Product Prices Strengthen

  Gasoline prices increased to $2.90 per gallon last week (15.9% y/y), up three cents from the prior week. Haver Analytics constructs factors to adjust for the marked seasonal variation in prices. The seasonally-adjusted gasoline price [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief