Moderation in consumer price inflation was broad-based during August. Consumer prices rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y) following a 0.2% July gain. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Sep 13 2018U.S. CPI Increase Holds Steady Unexpectedly; Core Price Gain Moderates
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 12 2018
U.S. Producer Prices Decline Unexpectedly
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index using new methodology eased 0.1% during August (+2.8% y/y) after holding steady in July. It was the first decline since February 2017. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 11 2018
U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Hits A Record Level
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate during July held steady m/m at a record 4.4%. It remained higher than the 4.1% rate twelve months earlier. (The job openings rate is the job openings level as a [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 11 2018
U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Steady; Crude Oil Price Weakens
Gasoline prices continue their recent sideways movement and were $2.83 per gallon last week (5.5% y/y). They remained down from the late-May high of $2.96. Haver Analytics constructs factors to adjust for the marked seasonal variation [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 11 2018
U.S. Small Business Optimism Jumps to Record High
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index rose to a record high of 108.8 during August. The index level was 3.3% higher than 12 months earlier. A record 34% of respondents [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 10 2018
U.S. Consumer Credit Use Accelerates
Consumer credit outstanding increased $16.65 billion (4.6% y/y) during July after rising $8.47 billion in June, revised from $10.20 billion. A $14.0 billion gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 10 2018
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Remain Soft
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) fell 1.2% during the last four weeks and extended the decline in prices since the peak in the middle of June. The [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
The labor market firmed last month. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 201,000 (1.6% y/y) during August following a 147,000 July rise, which was revised down from 157,000 estimated last month. The gain in June payrolls also was lessened to [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
The labor market firmed last month. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 201,000 (1.6% y/y) during August following a 147,000 July rise, which was revised down from 157,000 estimated last month. The gain in June payrolls also was lessened to [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 06 2018
U.S. ADP Private Payroll Increase Moderates
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 163,000 during August (1.8% y/y) following a 217,000 July gain, revised from 219,000. The increase disappointed expectations for a 190,000 [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 06 2018
U.S. Factory Orders Decline While Shipments Stagnate
Manufacturers' orders fell 0.8% (+9.0% y/y) during July following a 0.6% June increase, revised from 0.7%. Manufacturing shipments held steady (8.1% y/y) in July after a 1.0% June increase. Durable goods orders declined 1.7% (+9.4% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Sep 06 2018
U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Improves
The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) increased to 58.5 during August from 55.7 in July. Despite the increase, the index remained below its February high of 59.5. The [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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