Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Sep 19 2018

  U.S. Current Account Deficit Declines

  The U.S. current account deficit fell to $101.5 billion during Q2 2018 from $121.7 billion in Q1. It was the smallest deficit since Q4 2015 and compared to $103.5 billion expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. As a percent [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 19 2018

  U.S. Housing Starts Rebound After Two Months of Decline

  New home building activity improved last month. Total housing starts rose 9.2% during August (9.4% y/y) to 1.282 million (AR) from 1.174 million in July, revised from 1.168 million. That followed an 11.4% June decline to 1.177 [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 18 2018

  U.S. Home Builder Index Holds Steady

  The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo remained unchanged during September at 67. August's figure was unrevised and the index remained below its December 2017 high of 74. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 18 2018

  U.S. Energy Product Prices Drift Sideways

  Gasoline prices were $2.84 per gallon last week (7.9% y/y) and have been little changed since May. Haver Analytics constructs factors to adjust for the marked seasonal variation in prices. The seasonally-adjusted gasoline price rose [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 17 2018

  Empire State Manufacturing Index Eases; Prices Improve

  The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions declined to 19.0 during September from 25.6 in August. It was the lowest reading since April, but suggested continued economic growth. The Action Economics Forecast [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 14 2018

  U.S. Government Budget Deficit Widens Sharply

  Faster growth in spending and a lessened increase in revenues is a sure formula for widening the budget deficit. The U.S. Treasury Department reported that during August, the federal government ran a $$214.1 billion budget deficit, [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 14 2018

  U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Picks Up

  Total business inventories increased 0.6% (4.3% y/y) during July following a 0.1% June rise. It was the strongest increase since February. Total business sales increased 0.2% (8.1% y/y), following a 0.3% gain. The inventory-to-sales [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 14 2018

  U.S. Import and Export Prices Weaken

  Import prices declined 0.6% (+3.7% y/y) during August following a 0.1% easing in July, revised from unchanged. A 0.2% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 14 2018

  U.S. Retail Sales Edge Higher

  Total retail sales improved 0.1% (6.6% y/y) during August following a 0.7% July gain, revised from 0.5%. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 13 2018

  U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Remain Low

  Initial unemployment insurance applications decreased to 204,000 (-23.6% y/y) during the week ended September 8 from 205,000 in the prior week, revised from 203,000. It remained the lowest level since December 1969. The Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 13 2018

  U.S. CPI Increase Holds Steady Unexpectedly; Core Price Gain Moderates

  Moderation in consumer price inflation was broad-based during August. Consumer prices rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y) following a 0.2% July gain. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 12 2018

  U.S. Producer Prices Decline Unexpectedly

  The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index using new methodology eased 0.1% during August (+2.8% y/y) after holding steady in July. It was the first decline since February 2017. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief