Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Oct 19 2020

  U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Logs Another Record High

  • Housing market activity is exceptionally strong. • Number of prospective buyers improves to record level. • Monthly increases were mixed regionally. The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders- [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 16 2020

  U.S. Government Budget Deficit Surged In FY 2020

  • Budget gap totals $3.132 trillion. • The deficit accounted for roughly 16% of GDP, the most since 1945. • Receipts declined while outlays surged. The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the budget deficit increased to $3.132 [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 16 2020

  U.S. Business Inventories Rise In August Along With Sales

  • Business inventory accumulation accelerates. • Sales growth eases. • Inventory-to-sales ratio falls further to six-year low. Total business inventories rose 0.3% (-5.5% y/y) during August following an unrevised 0.1% uptick in July. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 16 2020

  U.S. Retail Sales Post Surprising Increase During September

  • Consumer spending improves broadly. Consumer spending was notably firm last month, rising for the fifth consecutive month, despite limited store openings due to COVID-19. Total retail sales, including food service & drinking [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 15 2020

  Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds in October

  • Headline index rose to highest level since February. • Component strength was broad-based. • Expectations continued to strengthen. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 15 2020

  U.S. Import Price Gains Moderate During September

  • Oil prices backpedal. • Export price gains remain firm. Import prices increased 0.3% (-1.1% y/y) during September after rising 1.0% in August, revised from 0.9%. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 14 2020

  U.S. Mortgage Applications and Interest Rates Ease

  • Both purchase and refinance applications slip. • Mortgage interest rates fall to record low. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 0.7% (+36.6% y/y) in the week ended October 9 after rising 4.6% in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 14 2020

  U.S. Producer Prices Rise Moderately in September

  • Core pricing power remains firm. • Goods price increase picks up. • Services prices remain firm. The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4% both m/m and y/y during September following a 0.3% August increase. A 0.2% rise had [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 14 2020

  U.S. Crude Oil & Natural Gas Prices Rise

  • Crude oil prices recover. • Natural gas prices jump. • Gasoline prices hold steady. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 3.1% last week (-24.4% y/y) to average $40.28 per barrel in the week ended October 9, rebounding [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 13 2020

  U.S. Small Business Optimism Strengthens in September

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increases sharply. • Strengthen occurs across the board, including hiring and pricing. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index increased to 104.0 in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 13 2020

  U.S. Consumer Price Index Growth Continues to Slow in September

  • Core goods remain firm. • Services prices are little changed. Retail pricing power weakened further last month. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% (1.4% y/y) during September following a 0.4% August rise and a 0.6% gain in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 12 2020

  FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Falter

  • Recent declines are broad-based. • Crude oil costs rise. The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) eased 1.3% during the last four weeks. Despite the decline, [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief