U.S. Retail Sales Firm in October; Nonauto Sales Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Autos & gasoline, with higher prices, lead upturn.
- Nonstore & furniture purchases are strong.
- Electronics & general merchandise store sales lag.
The consumer appears to be getting a jump on the holidays as the job market remains firm. Total retail sales increased 1.3% (8.3% y/y) during October after holding steady in September, which was unrevised. A 1.0% increase was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales rose 1.3% (9.0% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% September uptick. A 0.4% rise had been expected.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials & food services, rose 0.7% last month (6.5% y/y) after a 0.6% gain in September, revised from 0.4%. The latest increase was the strongest since June. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts.
Sales of motor vehicles & parts rose 1.3% in October (5.2% y/y) after easing 0.3% in the prior month. This gain compares to an 11.7% rise (14.4% y/y) in unit sales of motor vehicles. Gasoline service station sales rose 4.1% (17.8% y/y) as the average price of gasoline increased a seasonally adjusted 1.3%. The latest gasoline sales gain followed a 3.7% September decline as prices weakened. Sales at building materials & garden equipment stores rose 1.1% last month (9.2% y/y) after declining 0.2% in September.
Sales performance was mixed amongst other categories of retail sales. Nonstore retail sales strengthened 1.2% (11.5% y/y) following two months of 0.6% increase. Furniture & home furnishing store sales increased 1.1% (0.4% y/y) after falling 0.9% in September. Holding fairly steady were clothing store sales (3.1% y/y) after having risen 1.0% in both September & August. Working 0.3% lower (-12.1% y/y) were sales of electronics & appliance stores, down for the fifth month in the last six. Sporting goods & hobby shop store sales fell 0.3% (+2.5% y/y) after declining 0.8% in September. General merchandise store sales eased 0.2% (+2.3% y/y) after rising 0.8% in September. Department store sales declined 2.1% last month (-1.6% y/y) following a 1.3% September increase.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, food & beverage store sales rose 1.4% (7.6% y/y) in October after a 0.7% September gain. Health & personal care store sales increased 0.5% (5.4% y/y) following a 0.8% rise during September.
Dining out remained one of the strongest retail activities this year. Restaurant & drinking place sales rose 1.6% (14.1% y/y) in October following a 0.9% September increase.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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