U.S. Pending Home Sales Down for the Eighth Time in Nine Months in July
Summary
- -1.0% m/m (-19.9% y/y) in July vs. -8.9% m/m (-20.2% y/y) in June; the decline eases somewhat, reflecting the recent retreat in mortgage rates.
- July PHSI at 89.8, lowest since April 2020.
- Sales fall m/m in Northeast, Midwest and South, but sales in the West post the first m/m gain since January.
- Sales continue to drop y/y by double digits in all the major regions.
The Pending Home Sales Index fell 1.0% m/m (-19.9% y/y) to 89.8 in July after an 8.9% drop in June (-8.6% initially) and a 0.4% increase in May, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The July m/m fall was the eighth in nine months to the lowest index level since April 2020’s 71.6. Pending home sales have fallen 26.6% since the October 2021 peak.
Pending home sales decreased in most of the country in July, except the West where they rebounded 2.2% (-30.1% y/y) following a 16.2% June slump. The July m/m gain in the West was the first since January’s 1.4% increase. Sales in the Midwest slid 2.7% (-13.4% y/y) in July on top of a 3.8% decline in June. Sales in the South fell 1.1% (-20.0% y/y) after a 9.3% June drop. The Midwest and South regions experienced the sales declines for the eighth time in nine months to their lowest levels since April 2020. Sales in the Northeast dropped 1.9% (-15.4% y/y) following a 6.8% June decrease and a sizable 15.4% May gain.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.
The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's PREALTOR database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the SURVEYW database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has ~20 years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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