U.S. Industrial Production Edges Up in August on Auto Rebound
Summary
- August IP +0.1% (+0.9% y/y), driven by a 2.6% recovery in motor vehicle production.
- Mfg. IP +0.2%, w/ durables up 0.2% and nondurables up 0.3%.
- Mining output +0.9%, the third m/m rise in four mths.; utilities output -2.0%, down for the third month in four.
- Key categories in market groups mostly increase.
- Capacity utilization unchanged at 77.4%; mfg. capacity utilization up 0.1%pt. to 76.8%.
Industrial production (IP) edged up 0.1% m/m in August following a 0.4% drop in July (-0.1% initially) and a 0.5% rise in June (+0.4% previously), data from the Federal Reserve Board showed. A 0.1% m/m easing for August had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year growth rate slowed to 0.9% in August from 1.4% in July, but it was above 0.0% y/y in August 2024. The August IP index was at 103.9, marginally up from 103.8 in July and 2.4% above a low of 101.5 in January 2024.
By industry groups, manufacturing production, up for the third month in four, increased 0.2% (0.9% y/y) in August following a 0.1% downtick in July (0.0% initially) and a 0.3% rise in June (unrevised). Durable goods production rose 0.2% (1.5% y/y) in August, the third m/m rise in four months, on top of a 0.3% increase in July. Within durables, the following categories rose m/m in August, including output increases of 2.6% (1.1% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts, 1.2% (-0.6% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.6% (0.2% y/y) in wood products, 0.5% (6.7% y/y) in computer & electronic products, and 0.4% (2.9% y/y) in primary metals. Notably, aircraft & parts production increased 0.2% (8.7% y/y) in August, the smallest of 10 straight m/m gains, after a 0.9% rise in July. To the downside, the following durable goods categories fell m/m in August, including drops of 1.7% (-1.6% y/y) in furniture & related products, 1.7% (-1.8% y/y) in miscellaneous durables goods, 1.5% (-5.7% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components, 0.6% (+6.0% y/y) in aerospace & miscellaneous transportation equipment, 0.5% (+1.9% y/y) in machinery, and 0.1% (+0.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products.
Nondurable goods production increased 0.3% (0.7% y/y) in August, up for the second month in three, following a 0.5% decline in July. The August increase reflected m/m output rises of 2.5% (-0.1% y/y) in textiles & product mills, 1.6% (1.4% y/y) in petroleum & coal products, 1.4% (-2.1% y/y) in apparel & leather goods, 0.3% (3.0% y/y) in chemicals, and 0.2% (0.2% y/y) in food, beverages & tobacco. To the downside, the following nondurable goods categories declined m/m in August: plastics & rubber products (-0.7%; -3.9% y/y), paper (-0.5%; -0.8% y/y), and printing & related support activities (-0.3%; -2.6% y/y).
Mining activity rebounded 0.9% (1.0% y/y) in August, the third m/m increase in four months, after a 1.5% drop in July (-0.4% initially). Utilities output, however, slid 2.0% (+0.1% y/y), the third m/m slide in four months, on top of a 0.7% July decline (-0.2% initially), with a 2.3% decrease (+0.8% y/y) in electric utilities output and a 0.2% increase (-4.5% y/y) in natural gas utilities output.
By market groups, construction supplies production recovered 0.6% (1.2% y/y) in August, the second m/m increase in three months, following a 0.9% drop in July. Consumer goods output grew 0.4% (-0.2% y/y) after a 0.2% July decline, reflecting rebounds of 0.6% (-2.4% y/y) in durable consumer goods and 0.3% (0.4% y/y) in nondurable consumer goods. Materials production increased 0.1% (1.2% y/y), up for a second month in three, after a 0.5% July decrease. In contrast, business equipment output slipped 0.1% (+4.1% y/y) in August, the first m/m easing since October 2024, following a 0.5% gain in July.
In special classifications, factory output of selected high-tech industries dipped 0.1% (+13.8% y/y) in August, down for the second month in three, following an upwardly revised 4.4% advance in July (+1.4% initially). Meanwhile, manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech industries grew 0.2% (0.6% y/y) in August, the third m/m gain in four months, reversing a 0.2% decrease in July; manufacturing production excluding selected high-tech and motor vehicles & parts ticked up 0.1% (0.6% y/y), the second m/m increase in three months, following a 0.2% July decline.
Capacity utilization held at 77.4% in August, unchanged from July’s reading (77.5% initially). The latest result matched the forecast by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The August reading was 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization inched up to 76.8% in August from 76.7% in July (76.8% previously); the August rate was 1.4 percentage points below its long-run average.
Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s USECON database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the IP database. The expectations figures come from the AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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