U.S. Import & Export Price Inflation Weakens in 2022
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Lower oil prices dampen price gains.
- Widespread weakness occurs elsewhere.
U.S. import & export prices were under extreme downward pressure last year as world economies were either in recession or experiencing little growth. In the U.S., that weakness lowered import price inflation to 3.5% last year from 10.3% in 2021.
The U.S. economy grew a negligible 0.2% in the first nine months of 2022. That lowered nonoil import price inflation to 1.9% from 6.4% in 2021. Nonauto consumer goods prices rose 0.4% versus a 2.2% 2021 rise and food price inflation fell to 4.0% from 13.7%. Auto prices rose 3.1% after a 2.6% increase in 2021 and capital good prices rose a little-changed 2.9%.
Petroleum & oil product prices increased 20.2% y/y as of December, though prices declined 24.9% (NSA) in the second half of the year. Prices for imported products excluding petroleum rose a lessened 1.9% last year, but fell 1.0% (NSA) in the second half of the year.
The restrained economic growth story can be told about foreign economies where U.S. export price inflation fell to 5.0% from 14.9% in 2021. Agricultural product prices rose 9.2% last year after a 21.5% rise in 2021. Nonagricultural product prices rose 4.4% after a 14.1% gain.
Amongst product categories, foods, feeds & beverage price inflation declined to 9.6% from 20.2% in 2021. Industrial supplies & materials prices rose 5.6% after a 33.9% gain. Prices held up elsewhere as auto prices rose 4.7%, double the 2021 gain, and nonauto consumer goods prices improved 2.9% after a 2.6% rise in 2021. Capital equipment firmed 3.2% versus 3.8% in 2021.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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