FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Edge Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Crude oil prices strengthen.
- Metals prices continue to rise.
- Lumber costs decline.
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) improved 0.5% during the four weeks ended February 4 and increased 17.0% y/y. The level of the price index remained near its record high.
Crude oil & benzene costs rose 5.2% in the last four weeks and 29.1% y/y. The cost of crude oil rose to $88.45 per barrel last week, up nearly two-thirds y/y. The price of the petro-chemical benzene eased 0.6% during the last four weeks but rose 47.3% y/y. Excluding crude oil, industrial commodity prices slipped 0.3% in the last four weeks but gained 14.7% in the last year.
Prices in the metals group strengthened 3.1% in the last four weeks and 34.7% last year. Aluminum costs improved 8.1% in the recent four weeks and roughly one-half during the last year. The cost of steel scrap rose 5.0% in the last four weeks and 18.5% y/y while zinc prices improved 0.6% in the last four weeks and 41.9% y/y. Copper scrap prices also edged 0.6% higher in four weeks and increased roughly one-quarter y/y.
Prices in the textile group rose 1.7% during the last four weeks and 10.3% y/y. Cotton prices strengthened 10.2% in four weeks and 58.6% y/y. The cost of burlap, used for sacks, bags and gardening, improved 1.5% in the last four weeks and rose by one-quarter y/y.
Working lower was the miscellaneous price index which declined 4.9% during the last four weeks (+3.2% y/y). Framing lumber prices weakened 14.7% (+1.5% y/y). Natural rubber prices rose 3.6% in four weeks but fell 3.0% y/y.
Industrial commodity prices should remain strong. The National Association for Business Economics calls for a 4.0% rise in industrial output in 2022.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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