Featured Data Additions, April 24, 2026

G10→ US or EA → Business Cycle Indicators and Surveys → Nowcast Recession Risk

Nowcasting recession risks for the US and the euro area were added to G10. The model combines a macroeconomic and a financial conditions indicator for each area. For the US, it uses the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the CISS. For the euro area, it uses the Economic Sentiment Indicator and the CISS. This approach delivers accurate, real-time nowcasts of recession risk. The monthly data sourced from Ferno & Giannoni are available on the first business day after the reference month closes and start in January 1980.

Chart: How accurate is this recession risk nowcast? The yellow columns are the official recessions declared by NBER that can take several months and up to a year to announce. The dark line is the recession risk nowcast probabilities. It spikes up almost 100% at the beginning of the official recessions – and just as important, it is accurate in timing the end of a recession – unlike the Sahm recession indicator, which tends to stay elevated after a recessionary period is over.

GLSECTOR → Business Services and Employment → Indeed AI Tracker

The Indeed AI Tracker was added to the GLSECTOR database. This dataset is a high frequency labor market indicator that measures the share of job postings on Indeed that include AI and generative AI keywords such as machine learning, data science, large language models, etc. Series are available for nine countries. Daily 7-day moving averages are sourced from Indeed Hiring Lab and start in January 2019.

Chart: From mid-2020 to early 2022, growth in AI mentions was driven by more traditional AI applications, including machine learning and modeling techniques common in data and computer science roles. After peaking in early 2022, hiring for those roles began to decline. The trend reversed following the widespread introduction of ChatGPT and other LLMs in late 2022, and a subsequent growth in demand for newer generative AI skills began to push the overall share of postings mentioning AI back up again starting in mid-2023. Since then, Canada and Ireland have seen the most growth in implied demand for AI skills.

ENERGY → Petroleum → Petroleum Product Prices Including Pump Prices (Natl Sources) → Mongolia

Fuel pump prices for Mongolia were added to the ENERGY database. Fuels include 92 octane gasoline, 80 octane gasoline and diesel fuel. Regional scope includes a national total, four broad regions and 21 provinces. Weekly data are sourced from the National Statistics Office of Mongolia and start in January 2021 for the national totals and January 2024 for the regional detail.

Chart: Oil prices have increased from $70 to over $100 per barrel due to the conflict in the Middle East. As a country relying 100% on imported refined fuels, Mongolia faces external price shocks despite stabilized, long-term supply arrangements with Russia, making sustained elevated oil prices a major economic vulnerability. Currently, Mongolia has 42-day reserves of gasoline and 28-day reserves of diesel. Gasoline’s fixed prices have not yet increased, but price increases for diesel are considered unavoidable. Diesel increased by 307, 540 and 348 MNT (1,195 MNT in total) over the last three weeks – a 38% YoY increase.

EMERGECW → Poland → Business Cycle Indicators and Surveys → Economic Situation Barometer (BARIRG)

The economic situation barometer (BARIRG) for Poland was added to EMERGECW. The BARIRG is a synthetic leading indicator created by the Research Institute for Economic Development at the Warsaw School of Economics and is used to monitor Polish business cycles. Values greater than +10 indicate strong expansions while values below -5 indicate significant downturns. Quarterly data start in Q4 1998.

Chart: Q1 of a year usually brings about a slowdown in general economic activity which manifests in a decline of the BARIRG. Q1 2026 is an exception - the indicator stands at -3.78 points, which is 0.38 pts higher than Q4 2025 and 2.15 pts higher than a year ago. Despite improvement in the overall economic situation, the business cycle has not yet emerged with sufficient clarity. Since the beginning of 2024, the positive growth momentum of the domestic economy has been rather moderate and is currently showing a stable, flat trend.