EMU IP and Sectors Recover

Output jumped in the European Monetary Union in May. The main gain followed a 2.2% drop in April that was preceded by a 1.8% increase in March. There's been some turbulence in output over the last few months with April showing declines for all the major sector components.

Moving beyond monthly data, the sequential run of growth rates from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months shows that total industrial production is on an accelerating path from 3.8% over 12 months, to over 5% over six months as well as over three months. Manufacturing alone shows a 12-month 3.6% growth rate, rising to 4.7% over six months and to 5.8% over three months.

Sectors Sectors show a trend toward acceleration in consumer goods production where a 10.3% growth rate over 12 months progresses to 20.1% over six months and only backs off to 18.5% over three months. Splitting consumer goods output into durables and nondurables, we find less strength among durables with flat performance over 12 months, a 3.7% annual rate decline over six months, and a 4.3% annual rate increase over three months. However, for nondurables the growth rate surges from 11.6% over 12 months to 23.1% over six months and stays over 20% over three months. Intermediate goods’ trend is the fly in the ointment for industrial production, as output falls by 1.7% over 12 months, falls at a 2% pace over six months, and then falls at a 4.9% annual rate over three months. That setback is surprising given the growth rate and other categories. Capital goods show a strong accelerating phase from 4.1% over 12 months to a 5% growth rate over six months to 15.5% over three months.

Countries Looking across specific countries, the table shows 13 monetary union members in May - Seven of them show output contracting. That's the same number contracting as in April although in March only four showed industrial output contracting month to month.

The sequential growth rates calculated over broader periods show eight countries with output contracting over three months, but only five with output contracting over six months; six countries report lower output over 12 months – a much longer span of time.

Mixed trends within the community The sector data for all of the Monetary Union are relatively upbeat, but the country level data show a lot more mixed performance across individual country units; only Ireland, Finland, and Germany show output increases over three months, six months and 12 months. Conversely, Greece, France, and Belgium show output declines over three months, six months and 12 months.

The quarter-to-date (QTD), with two months of data in hand, is showing six countries with output declining on QTD-to-date basis. But for the EMU region as a whole, output is advancing at a 1.6% annual rate. Manufacturing output is rising at a stronger 1.9% annualized pace – with real strength in capital goods output.

Ranking performance The far right-hand column ranks current growth rates on data back to 2007. Seven of thirteen countries rank below 50% which is their median growth rate for the period. Finland, Ireland, and Portugal are quite strong; Malta and German have rankings solidly above their respective 50th percentiles. The Netherlands, Italy, France, and Austria have rankings in their 40th percentiles, lagging their median pace but in a 40% to 50% range. Belgium emerges as the weakest country on a ranking basis, standing only in its lower 8.7 percentile and it is riding a losing streak to boot.

Overall EMU IP rankings are solid-two sectors lag Overall EMU rankings show total output with a 66.1 (top one-third) percentile ranking with manufacturing at 59.6 percentile. Consumer nondurables are the strongest sector at a 98.2 percentile ranking. Both consumer durables and intermediate goods have lower standings: 40.8% for consumer durables and 37.6 percentile for intermediate goods. Both of those sectors are lagging and also carrying weak momentum. In contrast, capital good output is surging and its ranking at 47.7% is mostly below its median rank (at 50%).

Stimulus diverted? NATO has signed on for more miliary spending and this has been expected to underpin growth in Europe. But some of that stimulus will be redirected in just-announced deal in which the U.S. will manufacture arms and NATO would pay for them to help Ukraine. It is unclear how much stimulus that we had expected for Europe might be redirected to the U.S. by this new deal.