Global| Nov 01 2010UK MFG Staves Off Further Declines
Summary
The UK MFG sector showed a bit of spunk as the index for October rose, ending a string of declining values and surprising market forecasters. The UK index for October is back above not just its September value but its August value as [...]
The UK MFG sector showed a bit of spunk as the index for October rose, ending a string of declining values and surprising
market forecasters. The UK index for October is back above not just its September value but its August value as well.
Combined with the news on GDP from last week, the UK economy is suddenly showing some muscle. Will it last?
Data from Hometrack on home prices was not as encouraging as prices fell the most since January. Hometrack found that home prices fell by 0.9% from the previous month and posted their fourth straight decline. Buyer demand reportedly fell by 2.0% in the month while the number of homeowners putting their properties on the market increased by 1.9%. With the holidays in train Hometrack warned that conditions probably would get worse before they get better.
The UK still is facing further pressure from the ongoing fiscal austerity. The impact of the fiscal contraction will be ongoing. As such bright spots in the data, like the MFG survey, hardly seem to be indicative of what is to come. The fiscal drag could put the BOE back in the picture with renewed stimulus efforts.
| MFG, Construction and Services PMI CIPS/NTC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly Readings | Change Over: | Percentile | |||||
| Oct-10 | Sep-10 | Aug-10 | 3MO | 6MO | 12MO | Of range | |
| MFG | 54.93 | 53.52 | 54.06 | -3.86 | -3.82 | 3.02 | 80.5 |
| Construction | #N/A | 53.79 | 52.08 | -4.61 | 0.72 | 7.08 | 70.2 |
| Services* | #N/A | 52.80 | 51.33 | -1.60 | -3.66 | -2.50 | 62.1 |
| MFG range since January 1992; Construcion Since April 1997 Services Since July 1995 | |||||||
| * Services & construction changes and ranking: Sep-10 which is the most current date. | |||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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