Global| Aug 06 2007UK IP Restores Momentum
Summary
Year-over-year and six-month trends in UK IP are steady at a pacifistic 1%. But over the past three months UK IP has now accelerated strongly to a pace of just under 4% (at 3.6%). UK IP is up strongly in Q2 (see end of the table). The [...]
Year-over-year and six-month trends in UK IP are steady at a pacifistic 1%. But over the past three months UK IP has now accelerated strongly to a pace of just under 4% (at 3.6%).
UK IP is up strongly in Q2 (see end of the table). The overall gain in MFG is a rate of 2.8% Capital goods are leading the growth in Q2 with a quarterly rise at a pace of 4.9%; Consumer durables are the trailing category with a pace of just +0.3% in Q2. Vehicle sales have been firm, propelling vehicle output up at a 13.4% pace in Q2. Mining activity has been strong at 3.1% in the quarter but its growth patterns seems to show some cooling. Electricity, gas and water output have been weak, at a pace of 0.1% in the quarter, but apart from that the sector’s trends look solid.
| SAAR except M/M | M/M | Jun-07 | May-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | |||
| UK MFG | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | 3-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | 12-mo | Q-2-Date |
| MFG | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.8% |
| Consumer Durables | 3.4% | -0.9% | -1.5% | 3.9% | -2.3% | -3.2% | -8.6% | 0.5% | -3.1% | 0.3% |
| Consumer Nondurables | -0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 4.1% | -2.6% | 0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | 1.4% |
| Intermediate | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 2.1% |
| Capital | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.9% |
| Memo: Detail | 1-Mo% | 1-Mo% | 1-Mo% | 3-Mo | 3-Mo | 6-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | 12-mo | Q-2-Date |
| Food Drink & Tobacco | -0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2.4% | -2.3% | 0.0% | -0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Textile & Leather | 1.4% | -0.9% | 0.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 0.0% | -0.7% | 0.2% | -0.2% | 3.5% |
| Motor Vehicles & Trailer | 2.1% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 17.1% | 17.0% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 13.4% |
| Mining and Quarry | -1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 4.9% | -1.0% | 9.1% | 2.1% | -0.4% | -2.7% | 3.1% |
| Electricity, Gas & Water | 1.0% | 2.4% | -1.2% | 9.0% | 0.8% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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