Global| Jan 24 2006UK GDP Rises 0.8% in Q4: A Brief Summary
Summary
GDP in the UK gained 0.8% in Q4, the largest quarterly increase in 2-1/2 years, according to preliminary data reported today by the Office for National Statistics. The pick-up from 0.7% in Q3 occurred in the services sector. Contrary [...]
GDP in the UK gained 0.8% in Q4, the largest quarterly increase in 2-1/2 years, according to preliminary data reported today by the Office for National Statistics. The pick-up from 0.7% in Q3 occurred in the services sector. Contrary to at least one press report, this did not happen in the financial industries. Instead it was in old-line, traditional activities, including wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, and transportation and communications; these surged from marginal increases in Q3 to 1.4-1.8% in Q4. Finance and business services were hardly slow, at 1.0% growth in Q4, but they had been stronger at 1.3-1.4% earlier in the year.
Manufacturing had three firm quarter running, but came to a dead halt in Q4, with virtually no change at all. Even so, this put Q4/Q4 at 2.3%, the strongest since 1999. The mining sector (which includes oil production) stabilized after two quarters of steep decline, while utility output continued to contract. In fact, electricity, gas and water supply fell 5.2% Q4/Q4 and 3.2% for 2006 as a whole, the weakest performance since the massive coal miners' strike in 1984.
| UK GDP SA, % Changes | Q4 2006 "Prel" | Q3 2006 | Q2 2006 | Year/Year | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| Manufacturing | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | -1.1 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| Mining inc Oil Extraction | -0.1 | -3.8 | -3.7 | -7.6 | -8.0 | -8.7 | -7.9 | -5.1 |
| Electricity, Gas & Water Supply | -2.3 | -0.2 | -2.7 | -5.2 | -3.2 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Services | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 3.1 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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