Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Jul 10 2015

U.S. Wholesale Inventory Accumulation Strengthens

Summary

Inventories at the wholesale level increased 0.8% during May (5.0% y/y) following an unrevised 0.4% April gain. The rise was paced by a 4.4% jump (-16.7% y/y) in petroleum inventories which followed a 3.1% April increase. There also [...]


Inventories at the wholesale level increased 0.8% during May (5.0% y/y) following an unrevised 0.4% April gain. The rise was paced by a 4.4% jump (-16.7% y/y) in petroleum inventories which followed a 3.1% April increase. There also was strength in other nondurable industries. Drugs & druggist sundries inventories gained 2.7% (16.1% y/y) and chemical inventories rose 1.4% (1.8% y/y). These gains were offset by a 1.9% drop (+1.9% y/y) in paper inventories. Durable product inventories gained 0.6% (6.2% y/y) led by a 2.5% jump (7.5% y/y) in computer equipment. Automotive product inventories increased 1.2% (12.2% y/y) and furniture inventories gained 0.4% (6.8% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories rose 0.3% (6.9% y/y) while metals inventories improved 0.2% (4.2% y/y).

Wholesale sales continued to loose steam as a 0.3% increase (-3.8% y/y) followed a 1.7% April jump. A 4.3% increase (-32.5% y/y) in petroleum sales was accompanied by a 1.1% rise in paper products. These gains were offset as chemical sales declined 1.0% (-8.0% y/y) and apparel sales were off 1.2% (+1.1% y/y). Durable goods sales eased 0.1% (+1.6% y/y) as a 2.8% decline in furniture sales (+7.4% y/y) was offset by a 2.2% rise (9.4% y/y) in motor vehicles. Machinery sales improved 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) but computer equipment sales eased 1.0% (-2.9% y/y).

The inventory to sales ratio amongst wholesalers held steady m/m at 1.29 but that was up from 1.19 one year earlier. Motor vehicles ratio rose to 1.64 from 1.60 last May and computers jumped to a recovery high of 0.85 from 0.77 last year. The I/S ratio in the metals sector increased to 2.32 from 1.98 twelve months earlier but the ratio in furniture held steady y/y at 1.62. In the nondurable goods sector, the I/S ratio remained quite high at 0.95, up from 0.85 last May. The petroleum ratio was 0.43 compared to 0.35 and apparel jumped to 2.01 from 1.85 in May 2014.

The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database.

Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) May Apr Mar Y/Y 2014 2013 2012
Inventories 0.8 0.4 0.2 5.0 6.7 4.2 6.6
Sales 0.3 1.7 -0.3 -3.8 4.3 3.1 5.9
I/S Ratio 1.29 1.29 1.30 1.19 (May '14) 1.20 1.18 1.16
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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