Global| Jan 12 2015U.S. Wholesale Inventories Jump As Sales Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inventories at the wholesale level during November jumped 0.8% following a 0.6% October rise, earlier reported as 0.4%. Durable goods inventories led the gain with a 0.8% increase (7.1% y/y). It reflected a 2.6% rise (15.1% y/y) in [...]
Inventories at the wholesale level during November jumped 0.8% following a
0.6% October rise, earlier reported as 0.4%. Durable goods inventories led the
gain with a 0.8% increase (7.1% y/y). It reflected a 2.6% rise (15.1% y/y) in
computer equipment, a 1.3% gain (8.8% y/y) in electrical equipment and a 0.9%
increase (9.7% y/y) in machinery. Nondurable goods inventories rose 0.7% (4.4%
y/y) driven by a 5.7% surge (-7.4% y/y) in farm products and a 0.4% rise in
chemicals. Petroleum inventories fell 3.7% (-15.5% y/y). Paper & products
inventories were off 2.0% (+0.9% y/y) and apparel inventories dropped 1.2%
(+7.9% y/y).
Wholesale sector sales fell 0.3% (+2.4% y/y) reflecting a 0.8% decline (-0.8% y/y) in nondurables. Chemical sales were off 4.1% (+0.1% y/y), petroleum sales declined 0.5% (-14.1% y/y) and paper & products sales fell 0.6% (+4.0% y/y). These declines were offset by sales of durable goods which rose 0.2% (6.3% y/y), led by a 2.4% rise (8.3% y/y) in electrical & electronic goods and a 1.8% gain (9.6% y/y) in furniture sales. To the downside were metals sales by 1.2% (+14.9% y/y) and machinery sales which fell 0.5% (+8.0% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio ticked up to 1.21, its highest level since October 2009. The nondurable goods ratio jumped to 0.87, its highest point since April 2013, reflecting higher ratios for chemicals, raw farm products and chemicals. The durable goods ratio was stable at 1.58 for the third straight month. Increases in machinery and metal were offset by declines in furniture (to the lowest level since 2007) and electronic products.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 9.4 |
| Sales | -0.3 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 12.4 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.16 (Nov.'13) | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.15 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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