Global| Dec 03 2009U.S. Weekly Initial Claims For Jobless Insurance Fall Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The improved economy pushed initial claims for unemployment insurance down to a 15-month low. The Labor Department indicated that during the latest week, which included the Thanksgiving holiday, claims fell to 457,000 from a [...]
The improved
economy pushed initial claims for unemployment insurance down to a
15-month low. The Labor Department indicated that during the latest
week, which included the Thanksgiving holiday, claims fell to 457,000
from a downwardly revised 462,000 during the prior period. The figures
are down from the recession peak of 674,000 claims reached in March.
The four-week moving average of claims fell to 481,250 and the latest
weekly figure was lower than Consensus expectations for and increase to
488,000 claims.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance
during
the latest week inched up by 28,000 after a 176,000 decline during the
week prior which was much greater than reported initially. Continuing
claims were at the lowest level since late-February. The decline is a
function of the improved job market but also reflects the exhaustion of
unemployment benefits. Continuing claims provide an indication of
workers' ability to find employment. The four-week average of
continuing claims fell to 5,541,500. This series dates back to
1966.
Extended benefits for unemployment insurance rose w/w to a cycle high of 597,688 during the second week of November. The latest was versus 550,343 during all of October.
The insured rate of unemployment remained stable at 4.1% and matched its lowest since late-March. The rate reached a high of 5.2% during late-June. During the last ten years, there has been a 93% correlation between the level of the insured unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The
highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending November 14
were in Puerto Rico (6.1%), Oregon (5.9), Alaska (5.5), Nevada
(5.2), California (5.2), Michigan (5.1), Wisconsin (5.0),
Pennsylvania (5.0), and South Carolina (4.5). The lowest insured
unemployment rates were in North Dakota (1.2%), Virginia (2.0), Texas
(2.5), Maine (2.9), Wyoming (2.9), Maryland (3.1), Ohio (3.5), New York
(3.5), Mississippi (3.5) and Florida (3.7). Most of these rates are
slightly higher than their recent low. However, the data are not
seasonally adjusted but the overall insured unemployment rate is.· The
unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's WEEKLY
database and the state data is in the REGIONW
database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 11/28/09 | 11/21/09 | 11/14/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 457 | 462 | 501 | -11.6% | 420 | 321 | 313 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 5,465 | 5,437 | 33.2% | 3,342 | 2,552 | 2,459 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.1 (11/2008) | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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