Global| Dec 04 2013U.S. Trade Deficit Shrinks As Exports Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit improved to $40.6 billion compared to a revised $43.0 billion in September, last month reported as $41.8 billion. A $40.1 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics survey. Exports jumped [...]
The U.S. foreign trade deficit improved to $40.6 billion compared to a revised $43.0 billion in September, last month reported as $41.8 billion. A $40.1 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics survey. Exports jumped 1.8% (+1.1% y/y) following three months of slight decline. Imports nudged up 0.4% (3.6% y/y) after a 1.6% September increase. In chained 2009 dollars, the deficit in goods eased to $48.3 billion. Real exports jumped 3.2% (8.4% y/y) while real imports gained 0.4% (5.7% y/y).
The October trade deficit in goods with mainland China eased from the record to $28.9 billion. Exports to China jumped 20.6% y/y while U.S. imports gained 4.1% y/y. With Japan, the deficit deepened to $6.4 billion. U.S. exports fell 3.3% y/y and imports were down 6.4% y/y. The deficit with the European Union grew sharply to $14.3 billion. U.S. exports increased 6.7% y/y while imports rose 15.5% y/y.
The total real value of U.S. nonauto consumer goods exports jumped 6.8% (6.4% y/y) while real capital goods exports nudged up 0.6% (3.5% y/y). The constant dollar value of auto exports fell 1.6% (+9.7% y/y). Exports of foods, feeds & beverages increased 5.3% (8.5% y/y). Services exports improved 0.7% (5.0% y/y). Travel exports rose 0.8% (10.9% y/y) as the dollar's low value encouraged visits to the U.S. Passenger fares gained 2.3% (7.0% y/y).
The value of U.S. petroleum imports gained 1.5% (-7.3% y/y) as the quantity of petroleum product imports rose 5.7% (-5.1% y/y). The price of crude oil backed off m/m to $99.96 and remained down from the $109.69 high reached last year. Real imports less petroleum gained 0.2% in October (8.2% y/y). In constant dollars, imports of automotive vehicles declined 3.8% (+7.8% y/y) while real capital goods imports were off 0.4% (+4.3% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods imports rose 1.1% (11.5% y/y) and imports of foods, feeds & beverages gained 2.5% (7.4% y/y). Services imports nudged up 0.7% (2.3% y/y). Travel imports improved 1.0% (+3.3% y/y) but passenger fares jumped 4.3% (9.9% y/y).
The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics consensus survey, which is carried in the AS1REPNA.
| Foreign Trade (Current Dollars) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit | $-40.6B | $-43.0B | $-38.9B | $42.7B (10/12) |
$534.7B | $556.8B | $499.4B |
| Exports (%) | 1.8 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 14.5 | 16.9 |
| Imports | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 13.9 | 19.5 |
| Petroleum | 1.5 | 2.7 | -0.9 | -7.3 | -5.6 | 30.7 | 32.5 |
| Nonpetroleum goods | 0.2 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 12.1 | 20.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
