Global| May 02 2013U.S. Trade Deficit Falls Sharply As Imports Tumble
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit during March declined to $38.8B from $43.6B in February, revised from $43.0B. A $42.5B deficit had been expected. A sharp 2.8% decline in imports (-5.6% y/y) was behind the improvement Exports also were [...]
The U.S. foreign trade deficit during March declined to $38.8B from $43.6B in February, revised from $43.0B. A $42.5B deficit had been expected. A sharp 2.8% decline in imports (-5.6% y/y) was behind the improvement Exports also were off by 0.9% (-0.2% y/y). In chained 2005 dollars, the deficit in goods fell to $44.4B. Real imports fell 2.8% (-4.4% y/y) while real exports were off 0.9% (-1.5% y/y) .
The constant dollar value of motor vehicle exports fell 2.7% (+0.8% y/y). Real exports of foods, feeds and beverages declined 7.4% (-7.0% y/y) while real exports of nonauto consumer goods exports were off 1.4% (+0.4% y/y). Real capital goods exports slipped 0.6% (-4.0% y/y). Services exports ticked up 0.2% (2.3% y/y). Travel exports gained 0.5% (2.6% y/y) as the dollar's low value prompted more visits to the U.S. from abroad.
The quantity of petroleum product imports rose 7.4% m/m but was down 15.6% y/y. The price of crude oil rose m/m to $96.95 from $95.96 yet was down from $107.95 one year earlier. Real imports less petroleum fell 2.9% in March (-2.9% y/y). Real auto imports fell 2.7% (-1.4% y/y) while real consumer goods excluding autos declined 7.3% (-4.4% y/y). The constant dollar value of capital goods imports was off 3.3% (-5.8% y/y) and real imports of foods, feeds & beverages fell 1.2% (+5.9% y/y). Nominal services imports slipped 0.1% (-0.8% y/y) as travel imports increased 2.1% (-2.2% y/y).
By country, the March trade deficit in goods with mainland China fell sharply month-to-month to $17.9B. Exports to China fell 4.0% y/y while U.S. imports were off 13.3% y/y. With Japan, the deficit deepened to $6.6B. U.S. exports fell 9.1% y/y while imports were off 8.7% y/y. The deficit with the European Union deepened to $9.9. U.S. exports fell 8.6% y/y and imports declined 5.9% y/y.
The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics consensus survey, which is carried in the AS1REPNA.
| Foreign Trade (Current Dollars) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit | $38.8B | $43.6B | $44.5B | $51.7B (3/12) |
$539.5B | $559.9B | $494.7B |
| Exports (%) | -0.9 | 0.9 | -1.2 | -0.2 | 4.3 | 14.2 | 16.7 |
| Imports | -2.8 | 0.3 | 1.8 | -5.6 | 2.7 | 13.9 | 19.4 |
| Petroleum | -4.4 | -5.5 | 12.4 | -20.7 | -5.5 | 30.7 | 32.5 |
| Nonpetroleum goods | -3.0 | 1.2 | -0.0 | -3.0 | 5.2 | 12.1 | 20.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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